The 2014 FIFA World Cup kicks off in the Arena de Sao Paulo at 4pm ET on Thursday, following an opening ceremony that is sure to boast Brazilian carnival culture and advertise the “Joga Bonito” style of Brazilian soccer that has so endeared this year’s hosts to the soccer world.

The hosts Brazil will meet the Croatian national team for only the third time in their decorated history, with Pundits expecting an easy win for the South American side who are ranked as one of the favorites to win the tournament, while Croatia, who scraped through their European qualifying campaign, would exceed expectations in progressing from group A.

Brazilian soccer fans are famously critical of their national side, and will expect goals and flamboyancy from their opening fixture. Felipe Scolari, Brazil’s coach, will bear this in mind as Brazil look to make their mark on the tournament through the opening game, preferably through an early goal to put Brazil ahead. Scolari has a wealth of strong attacking midfielders to choose from to support Brazil’s young hope for the tournament, Neymar, who fills the iconic number 10 shirt for his first World Cup, and is expected to contend for the tournament’s golden boot award.

Following a dip in form towards the end of the Premier League season, Oscar might lose his place in the starting eleven, perhaps making way for one of his Chelsea teammates, either the hard-working Ramires or the industrious Willian. Chelsea’s David Luiz should start at centre back alongside the ever-reliable Thiago Silva. Long-stays Marcelo and Alves will compete the defense. Though Julio Cesar has been second to Robert Green for much of QPR’s past season in the Championship, he should start in goal for Brazil, ahead of Jefferson.

Croatia coach Niko Kovac has to deal with the suspension of Bayern Munich forward Mario Mandzukic, who misses the World Cup opener after receiving a red card for a horrific challenge in a play-off game against Iceland, in November. Replacing Croatia’s most influential player will distort their aging and uninspiring side as Kovac will look to either Olic or Eduardo to secure Croatia’s goals. Brazilian-born Eduardo is most likely to start, claiming he might sing both national anthems before kick-off.

With an experienced set of defenders in Srna, Lovren and Corluka, Croatia will look to shut out the likes of Hulk, Neymar and Fred, with Real Madrid’s Modric sitting deep to absorb some of the Brazilian midfield pressure. But with Brazil averaging over 2.5 goals per game in the build-up to the tournament, with Croatia only managing just over a goal a game, fans should expect an easy Brazilian victory to kick off their bid to reclaim the FIFA World Cup title.

Predicted Starting XI’s

Brazil: (4-2-3-1): Cesar; Alves, Luiz, Silva, Marcelo; Gustavo, Paulinho; Hulk, Oscar, Neymar; Fred.  

Croatia: (4-5-1): Pletikosa; Srna, Lovren, Corluka, Pranjic; Vukojevic, Modric, Perisic, Rakitic, Kovacic; Olic.

Referee: Yuichi Nishimura (Japan).

In December 2012, UEFA announced that the 2020 European Championship will take place in “12 or 13” different European cities in as many countries, giving smaller soccer nations the chance to bring the European festival to their doorstep without having to shoulder the financial and logistical burdens of acting as sole or co-hosts.

UEFA President Michel Platini described the initiative as a “romantic,” one-off occasion to celebrate the sixtieth anniversary of the tournament that first took place in France in 1960, with the Soviet Union running out inaugural winners in the 4-team finals.

While host selection customarily allocates that nation an automatic qualification spot, as in Poland and Ukraine in 2012, the 2020 tournament will see all 54 UEFA national teams competing for all 24 places at the finals tournament.

This follows the competition’s expanded format that will see the number of finals teams rise from 16 to 24 in time for the 15th European Championships, to be held in France in 2016. The Irish and Scottish FA were largely behind this increase, noting the improved level of soccer from lesser teams, although the expansion was backed by 51 of UEFA’s Member Associations.

Though it seems far away given the proximity of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, those countries and cities that have shown interest must finalize their bids in time for September 25, when UEFA’s executive committee will meet to determine the 13 host cities.

As expected, bids have come flying in from cities and stadiums great and small. The likes of London, Munich and Madrid have registered their willingness to provide their world-class stadiums for the “finals package,” with Istanbul the most likely to host the final itself, but it’s the smaller nations that interest me — exciting dreams of balmy European nights, drinking foreign beer and watching European football from unique and quirky stadia, with unique and quirky local fans.

All smaller nations can apply for the “standard package” that entails hosting three group games and a knockout round match. With 51 games in total, that’s a lot of soccer to be played in cities or even countries that you’d never usually consider as capable.

Imagine for instance a weekend in Minsk, Belarus; sitting in the sun by the beautiful Svislach River as Dinamo Minsk fans flood the streets with color and noise, banging drums and lighting flares on the way to the 33,000-seater Stadyjon Traktar.

Then there’s Israel’s bid to host the football circus in Jerusalem’s Teddy Stadium, where they beat Argentina 2-1 in 1998. The unique backdrop of the shining golden Dome of the Rock, encircled by the city’s ancient stone walls, would surely instill that old spirit of adventure into the traveling fan that has been lost in the congested main boozing squares of Warsaw or Lisbon.

How about an impromptu holiday to Azerbaijan or Macedonia, or a road-trip through the Scandinavian countries to celebrate European football in Copenhagen or Stockholm before finishing down in Rome at the electric Stadio Olympico? Armenia, Serbia and Romania deserve a taste of that special intra-European camaraderie as much as Germany, France or Ukraine.

The thought of tens of thousands of soccer fans zigzagging across Europe on trains and coaches, in cars or on planes, chasing that ephemeral soccer utopia; the image of Turkish ultras chatting with Shamrock Rovers fans in a Glaswegian tavern; or the idea of Kazakhstan hosting the mighty Spanish national team, surely captures the very spirit of a competition that has gone form strength to strength since its conception.

Equally exciting for a Brit is the possibility of seeing the tournament come to Wales, Scotland or Ireland. Glasgow’s historic Hampden Park, home to the Scottish national team for over a century, must compete with Cardiff’s 74,500-seater Millennium Stadium and Dublin’s 51,700 capacity Aviva Stadium, for a position as host in 2020.

Given that the UK will most likely be seen as a “zone” and will therefore potentially only be limited to three packages at the most, the rival Football Associations of Ireland, Wales and Scotland will have to do their utmost to prove that their city and their stadium can provide the most in what will be a fantastic summer tournament in 6 years time.

It’s a tremendously exciting time for all Europeans to experience new cities and peoples. It’s a thrilling time for host cities to show off their identities, and it’s a stimulating time for non-Europeans to watch soccer’s most successful continent play out a very special anniversary.

As Platini put it: “The finals will be a great celebration of football across the European continent and the 60th anniversary edition will be truly special by really coming to the doorstep of all football fans.” While all eyes drift to Brazil for the kick-off of the 2014 World Cup, bear in mind that there’s plenty more in store for us in the remainder of this decade.

A grim reaper haunted David Moyes from the stands directly beside the dugout as the Scot returned to Goodison Park to watch his old side Everton host Manchester United on Sunday. A day later, a leak from Old Trafford spread across all media outlets suggesting that Moyes had lost his job. Two days later, Manchester United FC officially confirmed the news.

This is modern soccer. The Paddy Power publicity stunt proved to be a harbinger of Moyes’ doom, and while Gary Neville expressed on Sky Sports’ MNF that Moyes deserved more time as manager, emphasizing his old team’s reputation as “not a sacking club,” it was clear from the unanimity of the press coverage on Monday that a decision on Moyes had been made before United’s declaration at 8.30am on Tuesday.

But how long before the club’s statement had the decision been made? Was the grim reaper stunt successful by fluke? All bookmakers suspended betting on Moyes to be sacked on Monday, and there have been hints that both the players and Moyes himself were aware of the significance of Sunday’s game for the future of the manager long before a ball was kicked at Goodison.

As the story has developed in the press, it has become clear that Moyes’ future was always going to hinge on Champions League qualification.

The football community went into Sunday’s game knowing that if Moyes’ Manchester United lost away at Everton, it would be mathematically impossible for the Red Devils to qualify for the Champions League in the 2014-15 season.

For a team that has enjoyed the privilege of playing in Europe’s most competitive tournament for consecutive seasons since 1995, this was inconceivable. For a set of owners infamously focused on generating profit from such success, it was unacceptable.

The importance of the Champions League for a team like Manchester United cannot be overemphasised. England’s richest club has become the global brand that it is through their tactical acquisition of major sponsorship deals, their yearly marquee signings and their constant inclusion in the most-watched club tournament on earth. The former two reasons rely heavily on the latter, and the revenue generated by all three is astronomical.

The upshot of all this is: if Moyes lost at Everton, he would cost the club a substantial amount of money that might reverberate through the brand for years to come.

Manchester United did lose, two goals to nil, as Everton completed their first double over United since the 1969-70 season. It was cruel that this pivotal moment should occur in front of the supporters that Moyes waved a fond farewell to less than a year ago, but it completes perfectly the tragic narrative of the manager that took the hardest job in soccer, and failed magnificently.

On drawing up Moyes’ 6-year contract, it appears the board were aware of this risk and built in a clause in case of extreme failure: should United fail to qualify for the 2014-15 Champions League, the manager is only entitled to one of the remaining 5 years pay of the contract. This goes some way to explaining the timing of the dismissal – the terms were only met when it became mathematically impossible for the team to qualify.

Following from this, the board and owners must have been well aware of the possibility that this term might be activated. This suggests that a contingency plan might have been in place as far back as United’s Champions League defeat at Olympiakos on February 25. The owners had a safety net to deploy if their team continued to perform poorly.

With the terms met following Sunday’s results, there was no longer a financial incentive for Moyes to be kept at the club, and he was promptly sacked, four games from the season’s conclusion. He’d been in the job just 10 months.

Whether Manchester United wanted to continue as a “non-sacking club” in this modern Premier League era or not, the sensible financial decision was to sack Moyes, and you can trust the Glazers to make that decision.

It must have been difficult for a board that includes Sir Alex Ferguson, David Gill and Sir Bobby Charlton to reach the same decision, but with Moyes’ ill-fated, record-breaking season reaching a climax at Everton, it seems all parties agreed that his time was finally up.

Moyes reportedly will receive a severance package of approximately £4.5million. Insiders say that Moyes was upset that the news that Moyes was going to be sacked was leaked to the British newspapers on Sunday night before Moyes knew he was going to get fired. It was Sunday night when Ed Woodward, Sir Alex Ferguson, Bobby Charlton and David Gill met to ratify the decision to sack Moyes. However, Moyes wasn’t officially told the news until Tuesday morning. According to reports, Moyes arrived early at Manchester United’s Carrington training complex on Tuesday at approximately 4:30am, to avoid the press, knowing that it would be his last time at the complex. After the news was confirmed, Moyes said his goodbyes to the players and staff before Ryan Giggs took charge of the morning training session alongside Phil Neville and Chris Woods.

Following a game that hinged on two contentious refereeing decisions, West Ham manager Sam Allardyce last week came out with an interesting concept that perhaps deserves more attention than his usual sardonic post-match complaints: an academy for referees.

While Allardyce’s interviews have been known to end with Big Sam huffing and puffing about his lack of an Italian surname, it’s refreshing to hear the veteran manager offer a solution instead of dwelling on the questionable decisions made in the preceding 90 minutes of English football.

Allardyce bemoaned “we’ve been saying something needs to be done for six or seven years,” following a run of seasons in which both relegated teams and losers in the title race have blamed their predicaments on crucial refereeing errors with increasing frequency.

The Premier League has become a fast-paced animal that gives armchair fans the satisfaction of slow-motion replays where referees have a blur of action to interpret in real-time. The scrutiny on referees is not new to this decade – lest we forget that Clough/Motson encounter – but with Premier League television revenue upping the stakes, is it time we invest more money in our referees?

The sensible answer is: yes. With ongoing investment in goal-line technology, safer stadiums, better players and better training facilities in the £105million St George’s Park, you’d expect a similar pattern in the investment in referees. You’d also expect, with England’s extensive league system and FA training matrix, a significantly large pool of referees in need of funding.

In line with such expectations, earlier this year the Premier League and its member clubs agreed to triple the investment in referee training in the next twelve months to £1million. This is a significant increase, but the figure remains strikingly low when compared to the cost of the average Premier League player (around £6million). The funding is also dwarfed when you consider some of the bigger clashes of the season, for instance Chelsea versus Manchester City, during which referees must protect and supervise upwards of £500million worth of talent.

The increase in funding primarily targets a long-term referee development plan where the previous policy focussed on the Select Group – the group of 16 professional referees and their assistants (the Howard Webbs and Mark Clattenburgs of this world). The new strategy means more referees will be able to attend and learn from meetings that take place at St George’s Park.

While it can only be a good thing that more referees are getting the funding they deserve (and apparently need), this change of policy will not see an improvement in the quality of refereeing at the highest level for quite some time. Certainly, Allardyce will be long gone: a shadow in the echelons of Premier League history.

I do believe though that the majority of complaints about the quality of refereeing are unfounded. Premier League referees have worked their way to the peak of their profession through years of good calls, and Howard Webb’s selection as referee to the 2010 World Cup final goes some way to prove they are amongst the very best in the world.

Surely, if this were the case, the room for improvement in the Select Group’s officiating is slim to non-existent. Allowing a certain threshold for human error, they do a fantastic job – something television pundits are finally pointing out in their post-match analysis. To further improve refereeing at the highest level, the threshold for human error would have to be removed through the introduction of video refereeing. This is clearly years away from reality.

While I struggle to imagine the benefit of a refereeing academy for those top referees, Big Sam has in fact brought to light a broader issue. God knows the refereeing in the football league could use a vast improvement, and the structure of an academy, with young talent learning from the current best, could mean that the Championship will one day see the same level of refereeing as the Premier League. And so on, and so on.

Whether the academy will involve trawling through archives of Ashley Young dives and Joey Barton fights like the theory before a driving test I don’t know, but football fans, players and managers should all welcome any investment in referees.

Before the game last week, you might have expected a rampant Luis Suarez or a vengeful Andy Carroll to steal the headlines at Upton Park, but the man in the spotlight come the final whistle was referee Anthony Taylor. Likewise, Andre Marriner’s embarrassing mistake at Stamford Bridge last month mothballed into a bigger story than the sensational 6-0 score-line.

Surely, for the good of the sport, more time should be invested in our referees and less time should be spent picking apart their every decision. The less time spent discussing referees, the more time we the fans can spend on admiring the football in this thrilling 2013/14 Premier League season.

Manchester City’s Carlos Tevez has been relentlessly slated in the press for his apparent refusal to come off the bench to aid his struggling teammates in what transpired to be a rather frightened display from City against a superior Bayern Munich in September. Managers, coaches, players and pundits have come out and had their say, but I believe Tevez deserves a good opportunity to express himself before the guillotine falls on his playing career in the Premier League.

Football fans should look upon the Argentine’s recent saga objectively. Yes, he may be on one of the highest salaries in the sporting world, but for two years he’s been nothing less than a hero for Manchester City, earning respect from his adversaries for his breath-taking goals and dogged attitude. He was certainly City’s finest player in the 2010-11 season, scoring 23 goals in 39 appearances for the club, performing at a phenomenal level of skill in each, and earning the captain’s armband as a reward for his endeavour in a team of global superstars. He was a talisman for West Ham and Manchester United, and when he pulled on the sky blue number 32 shirt, nothing about his attitude changed.

So why, in-form and adored by his fans, did he snub his manager and decline the opportunity to play a European game for his club? For me, the answer lies with the kind of atmosphere that is brewing in the Manchester City camp. It is all too obvious that money is the governing factor in our beautiful game, but at City, it seems that the team revolves purely around price. Since their takeover, signings have been conducted willy-nilly, outstanding players mashed together in a Frankenstein of beauty. The team plays superbly, but underneath the force of Aguero, vision of Silva and strength of Kompany lies a deeper, troubling aspect that is new in today’s game. Greed. Did the players come to City on the promise of medals, or the colossal salary on offer? For many, I believe it’s the latter, but with Tevez, I believe there are things more important.

Indeed, we saw Tevez’s disillusionment at City brew in the summer. With his young family apparently his main priority, he seemed ready to leave the Etihad for closer-to-home Brazilian outfit Corinthians, his shadowy agent Kia Joorabchian ensuring the press that his player was willing to take a huge wage cut to move his family back to South America. Clearly Tevez had his family’s best interests at heart, and I held him in high esteem for risking his career and cutting his salary for the good of his children.

Unfortunately, though Corinthians placed a number of bids, his wishes were not fulfilled and Tevez would remain in Manchester for at least the beginning of the 2011-12 season. In interview, he was adamant that he was happy again and that he was ready for another season at City, but it is unlikely this was the case after a summer of yearning for a transfer. I think, like so many other players at City, that Tevez has the ego to think he was more powerful than the club. Refusing to come off the bench was as much a warning as it was a plea – to respect him as a player but also a family man – and although it was undoubtedly the wrong decision in hindsight, I think it was the actions of a desperate man expressing himself in one of the only ways he had left.

Paul Scholes admitted after the Bayern game that he had once also refused to play under Sir Alex Ferguson, in the middle of his career. He was reprimanded and has regretted it since, but as a player of similar stead to Tevez, he alone can understand the City player’s actions. It is a sad day when passionate incidents such as the Tevez saga leave football, and an even sadder one when money dictates everything a player says and does. I say to City: Let Tevez leave, remember him as the great player he was, and not the rare, bad mistake he made.

Yesterday was a bad day for Serie A in the Champions League.  Roma lost 3-1 at home to FC Basel to fall into last place in Group E, but level on points with Basel and Cluj.  But the big story of the night was AC Milan’s first trip back to the Bernabeu since their shock 3-2 victory there last year.

This year’s trip was quite different, and the major difference was the two men on the sidelines.  Jose Mourinho, now the manager of Real Madrid, got a chance to face an opponent he almost owned in Serie A over the past few years.  And his managerial expertise and genius was seen from kickoff.  Madrid dominated action for the first twenty minutes and consistently threatened the Milan goal, scoring twice in the first fifteen minutes.

The first goal was part Ronaldo’s skill, part Milan failure.  After Alexandre Pato made a poor challenge outside the box that was called, Ronaldo drilled the free-kick into the corner in an absolutely brilliant shot through a Milan wall.  Replays showed, however, that the gap was created by Clarence Seedorf stepping back and a few teammates pivoting away from the shot.  About sixty seconds later Madrid added a second goal.  Mesut Ozil’s quality chance inside the area was put into the net by deflecting off of Daniele Bonera’s head as keeper Amelia watched from the ground.

Milan, while having a few chances throughout the match, was generally dominated by Madrid.  Coming in everyone knew that Madrid had only allowed three goals this season, and they showed their prowess by limiting Milan to only a few legitimate chances to score.  Allegri is rightly receiving criticism from Milan fans for his lineup with eschewed defense and looked to score as often as possible.  That meant starting Seedorf and Ronaldinho, as well as Ibrahimovic, Pato and Pirlo.  Ronaldinho, while a few times looking quality, was generally a non-factor, while Pato played a poor match and Ibrahimovic was shut down by the defense.  Seedorf, in addition to creating a hole in the wall in the fourteenth minute, had an open chance later in the first half that he completely botched.  Allegri looked lost in this match while Mourinho again put out a perfect lineup and his club had the better gameplan.

So Milan is back to the drawing board but still has three points in Group G.  Today’s Champions League match is a real treat as Tottenham travels to Milan to face Inter in a match that has some interesting storylines.  It is up to Rafa’s club to prevent Serie A from going 0-3 in the Champions League this week.

The soccer press has been buzzing about the latest Wayne Rooney press conferences, statements, and rumors.  The usual suspects have been named as possible destinations: the ATMs that are Manchester City and Real Madrid, EPL rival Chelsea, and Bundesliga giant Bayern Munich.  But where Wayne Rooney really belongs is in Italy, and specifically Inter Milan.

Here is why Rooney in the Black and Blue makes the most sense:

• He moves to a team that is already successful and won’t need him to be their savior: Don’t get me wrong, Inter Milan needs the talents of a player like Wayne Rooney.  Although they are well positioned to repeat as Serie A champions again, their campaign so far has been lackluster.  Their nine goals are the fewest scored by any of the top six and its been their defense that has won attention.  An on-form Wayne Rooney immediately boosts their offense.  But Inter Milan does not absolutely need him; if they did not sign him Eto’o, Milito, and Sneijder are still world-class up front.  His addition would add a key component without the pressure of being “The Man” for Inter.
• Rooney counters the Milan signings: The media attention in Serie A has been on Inter’s intercity rival.  Their Ibrahimovic signing so far has been worth every euro, and they have become the popular pick to snatch the title away from Inter (sorry Lazio fans).  While press clippings don’t win scudettos, signing Wayne Rooney reminds everyone which club is the defending champions of Italy and Europe and pushes Milan to the second page.  This is a definite benefit to management.
• He provides needed youth up-front: It’s hard to remember, but Wayne Rooney is just 24 years old.  Milito is 31 and Eto’o is 29.  Rooney becomes the young striker that Balotelli had been for the Nerazzurri.
• Rafa Knows Rooney: Having managed against him in the EPL, he is well aware of his skills so the learning curve on how to use Wayne Rooney in his system will be short.  Plus, he has dealt with the press in multiple countries and can help with that aspect.
• Serie A is a clean start away from the English press:  Athletes in crisis management are well served stepping out of the spotlight for a time to re-craft their image.  While Rooney playing with Inter would still cause a media circus, he would be covered daily by the Italian press and not the English press.  While the Italian press can be critical (to put it lightly), he is out of the country where he is seen as THE face of football.  At the same time he would still be playing top-flight football and could showcase his skills on the international stage.  And I suspect Fabio Capello still has a few friends in Italy who can keep an eye on Rooney for English national purposes.

What do you think of Wayne Rooney with the Nerazzurri?

One Italian national team played a match yesterday, and the results were quite dispiriting.  With a seemingly safe 2-0 aggregate lead over Belarus, the Italian U-21 club found a way to lose 3-1 in the return match and be eliminated from the UEFA U-21 championship.  The practical result is that the club not only will not have a chance at another U-21 championship, but has been eliminated from the 2012 Olympics.  In a year when the senior club was embarrassed at the World Cup and fans looked to the youth system for hope, this was a very poor result.

On Friday, the Italians convincingly beat Belarus 2-0 on goals by AS Roma’s Chuka Stefano Okaka and Genoa’s Mattia Destro.  With a two goal lead and playing a country with little soccer tradition and two players currently playing top-flight football (including Cagliari’s Mikhail Sivakov), Italy was the heavy favorite.

But Belarus sent a message early on a goal that was as much brilliance by Vladimir Yurchenko as it was incompetence by keeper Vito Mannone.  Mannone tried to gather a shot in the third minute but lost the ball, which led to an empty net goal.  Not a good result for the keeper who last week became the latest Arsenal keeper to complain about playing time.

And Belarus did not waste any time putting more pressure on Italy, with Yurchenko scoring again two minutes later off a field-length pass.  However, even down 2-0 after five minutes, Italy could have advanced with a single goal (away goals being the second tiebreaker).  However, both teams played even for the rest of regulation.  In the overtime period, however, Oleg Veretio made the young Azzurri pay by slipping the third goal past Mannone, putting Belarus ahead for the 3-2 victory on aggregate.

Italy had their chances in this match – chip shots by Destro (30th minute), Okaka (77th minute, 100th minute) and Ranocchia (final minute) either hit the post or were right at the keeper, and scoring just one of those quality chances would have advanced Italy.  Their defense was not helped by the loss of captain De Silvestri to suspension, but better play should be expected from both the backline and especially the keeper.

Where does the U-21 program go from here?  I wouldn’t be surprised if this was Pierluigi Casiraghi’s last match as the team’s manager, and the club will have to lament the missed chance to play across the continent in the 2012 Olympics.  But all is not lost for the Italian youth.  The U-19 club has advanced in its tournament and is looking like a favorite to win.  Plus the U-21 has some definite talent that will be ready for the next World Cup.  Overall, this loss is a set back for Italy but not a definitive one.

Contender #1 – Ilicic’s Opening Goal Against Fiorentina

Josip Ilicic’s goal was the first of the match and one of two scored in Palermo’s 2-1 defeat of Fiorentina this weekend.  The angle and arch of the shot is what makes this so beautiful – as it leaves his feet you know there is no chance Frey will save it.  Extra points for this video showing the shirtless fans celebrating like it’s Mardi Gras in New Orleans.

Contender #2 – Pirlo’s Game Winner Against Parma

Pirlo’s return to action saw him score the first Milan goal from anyone besides Ibrahimovic in the last three matches.  What makes this an amazing goal is the distance from where he launches it, and you don’t actually think it could work until the ball lands in the back of the net.  It proved to be the only offense on the day and allowed Milan to remain within two points of the top of the table.

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The importance of Swedish international Zlatan Ibrahimovic to AC Milan goes beyond the simple statistics – 6 total matches for AC Milan, five goals.  On a team full of high-profile talent and scoring ability, Ibra has stood out early in the season as the player who has carried Milan offensively and helped them remain in the hunt for both the Champions League and Serie A titles.

Yesterday is a perfect example of his value to the club.  Playing in the hostile Amsterdam Arena and already down a goal, Ibrahimovic made his former club pay.  Off a good pass by Seedorf into the box, he used his height to collect the ball off his chest and fire home a strike to tie the game at one.  If you watch the highlight, the goal was not an easy one but he shows incredible ability to control the ball before putting it in the back of the net.  He almost assisted on the go-ahead goal but Kevin-Prince Boateng was denied on an amazing save by Maarten Stekelenburg late in the second half.  In the end, Ibrahimovic haunted his own club and gave Milan a much needed drawn, a result that should help them advance in the competition.

But should any Milan fan be surprised by the outcome?  Since his first match for Milan on September 11, he has become the fulcrum of the Milan attack.  All told, he has scored the goal to win or tie a match four times:

• Both goals in the 2-0 home win against Auxerre
• 66′ goal in the 1-1 Lazio draw (9/22)
• The only goal in a 1-0 versus Genoa (9/25)
• Yesterday’s goal to draw against Ajax

With Alexandre Pato returning soon, Ibrahimovic will have additional help on offense, especially if Ronaldinho is able to round back into playing shape.  But for now, let’s acknowledge that to this point Ibrahimovic has been by far the best pickup in the offseason and may be the reason AC Milan is succeeding so far in Europe and Italy.

Like most soccer fans, I am a soccer league polygamist.  Because I live less than 20 minutes from an MLS club, I root for and follow Major League Soccer in the U.S.  However, I am also a passionate Arsenal fan who lives and dies in every match they play throughout the year.  And of course, I love Serie A best of all and have my favorite club, whose scarf I wore proudly this past Sunday.  I dare say almost every soccer fan, because of the diverse leagues around the world, has multiple favorite teams or leagues.

But as I read about Bobby Zamora’s recent leg break and as Arsenal players continue to suffer and recover from rough (or, if you prefer) violent tackles, it made me compare the style and content of play I watch in both the EPL and Serie A every weekend.  And upon reflection, I came to a conclusion I probably reached long ago but only now can put into writing:

Serie A soccer is superior to English Premier League soccer

This sentiment goes beyond just who has the best team (although it would be Serie A with reigning Champions League winners Inter).  Looking at the two leagues as a whole, Serie A is superior to the EPL in a number of ways both on and off the pitch and, if I were a novice soccer fan researching what league to watch, it should be obvious that I would want to watch Serie A.  The following are the reasons for this argument, and I welcome your thoughts in the comments section below and on Twitter @roberthayjr.  Thanks also to Niccolo for his contribution to this post:

1. The Italian style of play is more fluid and skillful, while the EPL style is one of constant hard fouls – If you are a fan of an EPL club, it is almost inevitable that one of your most important players will miss time with a nasty injury picked up from a violent tackle.  Arsenal alone lost Robin Van Persie this year and Aaron Ramsey last year for extended time to hard fouls in league play.  It’s not just Arsenal – Tottenham fans will have to enjoy not watching Jermaine DeFoe for seven more weeks, Everton fans Jack Rodwell, Tottenham fans Luka Modric, etc.  Why?  Because these players are subject to constant fouling and aggressive slide tackling, which is the EPL style of play.  On a Serie A pitch, there are fouls and slide tackles, but you are more likely to see fluid passing and individual skill over broken shins.
2. English fans whine about their clubs, Italian fans actively seek to undermine their clubs – AC Milan fans made news last year when one of their ilk, protesting club owner Silvio Berlusconi, threw a statue at him and knocked him out.  Manchester United fans, conversely, feel wearing old shirts conveys their anger sufficiently.  When a club under-performs in Italy, the fans act as though the world is ending and the papers ring endlessly with criticism and advice on just how the manager should have done differently.  If it’s truly bad, they simply do not attend and show the management what an empty stadium looks like.  English soccer fans and their local press more grumble and fall into a “woe is me” attitude.  The Italian style is much more fun.
3. Serie A owners are much more interesting than their EPL counterparts –  Who would you consider the most interesting and exciting Premier League owner?  There are some who are hated, but that is more for their nationality and mismanagement (Glazers, Hicks).  Italy has some real characters running their clubs, likely because many of them are family owned and operated within the country.  The obvious one is Silvio Berlusconi, who is passionate about AC Milan and tends to make himself the center of most offseason stories; has an English owner ever said publicly the team would have won the Premier League if he had been manager, and was 100% serious?  Napoli’s Aurelio De Laurentiis is another colorful personality that loves to spend his family’s wealth on the club, and is not afraid to speak on it.
4. Serie A has more parity than the EPL – Right now, the top four clubs in Serie A are Cesena, Inter, Chievo Verona, and Lazio, with Brescia right behind.  Granted it is early in the season, but it is much easier for smaller clubs to climb the ladder in Serie A than it is in the EPL.  The Premier League is dominated by four clubs every year and the story at the beginning of every season is which club can crack the top 4.  While Serie A has its Big Four (Juve, Inter, Milan, and Roma), it is much easier for smaller clubs to compete for European tournament spots.  A club with the budget and population of Chievo could never compete for a UEFA tournament in the EPL, but can in Serie A.
5. Serie A clubs are more successful in Europe than EPL teams – Many people don’t realize this, but Italian teams have been more successful in European play (especially recently) than Premier League clubs.  Overall, Italian clubs have won 12 Champions League trophies versus 11 for England, but since 1992 that number has been 5 for Italy, 3 for England.  The same trend has held true for the UEFA Cup/Europa League: an Italian club has won the trophy 9 times (5 since 1992) and an English club has won the trophy 6 times (once since 1992).

Serie A fans have had to endure a long two weeks for the international break, but they could be looking at another long break at the end of the month that could deprive fans of the most anticipated matches so far this season.

Earlier today, the Italian Professional Players’ Association announced that, due to the failure to sign a collective-bargaining agreement, all Serie A players will go on strike the weekend of September 25-26.  That weekend has two high profile and anticipated matches, as defending champion Inter is set to visit scudetto contender AS Roma, while AC Milan hosts dark horse contender Genoa.

At issue is a proposal by the owners to limit a player’s ability to refuse a transfer.  The proposal states that a player with more than a year on his contract cannot refuse a transfer if he is being transferred to “an equally competitive club” that guarantees the same financial conditions.  An example would be this offseason’s potential transfer of Fabio Grosso to AC Milan, when he refused to leave Juventus. Also, the players are allegedly upset with another proposal that would force players to be treated by team-appointed physicians instead of their own doctors.

FIGC President Giancarlo Abete has called for a meeting Monday with himself, AIC representatives and Serie A leadership.  But even if some agreement is reached, the strike will likely continue according to AIC representative (and Milan fullback) Massimo Oddo: “The players are fed up with being treated like objects and not like people. We are dealing with human rights here.”

This is the first players’ strike since the 1995 Bosman ruling over player transfers.  While strikes have been threatened in the past, this time it looks like the strike will definitely happen.  I am sure we have not heard all sides of the debate, but the timing on this announcement could not be worse.  Italy’s season is already behind that of England, Germany, and France and now faces another break four matches into the season.  The next international break is two weeks after the strike, so by mid-October Serie A fans would have only seen their favorite club play five Serie A matches.

Ultimately, the fault lies with both sides for not resolving this situation over the summer, and as usual it is the fans who will suffer.  But what do you think about the strike?

As the new Serie A season pauses this weekend for national teams to begin their qualifying for Euro 2012, Italian soccer fans may feel lost not being able to watch their favorite club.  To be honest, the Italy-Estonia qualifier looks less than tantalizing only two months after the exciting World Cup match-ups and high-level play.  But this match (which you can see on ESPN3 on Friday) does have some compelling story lines that makes it worthwhile to watch:

1. The New Azzurri Team Members: As Niccolo wrote, injuries and disappointing play have led to a number of new players being called up by Cesare Prandelli for tomorrow’s match (in addition to those called up for the Ivory Coast friendly in August).  Five players received their first call-up for the Italian national team – Luca Antonelli, Cesare Bovo, Lorenzo De Silvestri, Daniele Gastaldello, and Luca Cigarini.  With injuries to big names like Balotelli and Marchisio, this is a chance for some fringe players or less well-known players to make a case for their inclusion on the Euro 2012 squad going forward.
2. Removing the Bad Taste of the World Cup: Leading up to the World Cup, prognosticators saw the warning signs for the Italian team and expressed trepidation about their chances – too few goals, too slow pace, too little enthusiasm.  The failure to advance past group stage left a bad taste in the mouth of many Azzurri fans and tainted the Italian system.  While Estonia is not a top-flight contender like Spain or France, it is a chance for the new Prandelli era to put the previous team behind them and begin the trek to the 2014 World Cup in style.  A dominant or convincing win would boost morale, but a poor win, draw or loss could resurrect doubts about Italian football.
3. Redemption for World Cup Players: Andrea Pirlo has the opportunity to show he is still a world class player, despite a knee injury that reduced his effectiveness in the World Cup.  Giampaolo Pazzini was a major disappointment for the Azzurri in South Africa – after being put on the Italian squad because of a phenomenal ’09-’10 Serie A season, Pazzini was a dud in his World Cup appearance.  Both, and other members of Lippi’s squad, can show they can still play internationally.
4. The Race for #2 (or maybe #1) Keeper: With Buffon recovering, three keepers will have the chance to establish themselves as the solid backup or even the starter depending on Gigi’s health.  While Marchetti already has experience playing for the Azzurri, his performance in South Africa left many fans looking for better.  This could be a good chance for Sirgu or Viviano to show they are world class keepers, or Marchetti to show he is better than his World Cup performance.
5. The Chance to See Estonia’s Cool Football Culture:  While only in existence as an independent nation since 1991, Estonia has created for itself a pretty cool football culture.  Its stadium, A. Le Coq Arena, is named after a national beer and only holds about 10,000 people for soccer matches.  Their supporters are known as “the football hospital” in English and upon joining, members are given a “diagnosis” for joining the hospital.  The players aren’t well known outside the country, with two (keeper Mihkel Aksalu and striker Tarmo Kink) playing in the EPL.  American soccer fans will recognize New York Red Bull midfielder Joel Lindpere.

In July, I wrote a post for this site asking AC Milan fans for calm.  The club had been quiet on the transfer market and Silvio Berlusconi had gone public in saying he intended to build his youth academy to help the team.  I said at the time that if the club did not acquire any big names, they would be title contenders but would not be favorites.

Flash forward forty plus days.  Ibrahimovic.  Robinho.  Boateng.  The club worked the transfer market hard in the waning hours and secured some of the biggest names available on the market.  They also grabbed Sokratis from Genoa, a smaller profile signing that helps their defense.  In exchange, they dumped the aging Marco Borriello, overrated Huntelaar, and backup striker Dominic Adiyah.  As the dust settles on the summer transfer dash and the ownership begins to show off the new presents to the fans, the question is:

Is Milan now the favorite to win the Serie A title?

If Allegri decided to stick to a 4-3-3, here is the lineup the club could field in coming weeks:

Keeper: Amelia

Defenders: Antonini, Thiago Silva, Nesta, Bonera

Midfield: Seedorf, Pirlo, Ambrosini

Forwards: Ibrahimovic, Ronaldinho, Pato

Bench: Robinho, Boateng, Inzaghi, Antonini

The biggest impact the additions have on this club is to make the forward position younger and more deadly.  Ibrahimovic has the ability to dominate on the offensive end and provides a consistent scoring threat this club lacked from the forward position last season.  Ronaldinho, while at times dominant, came into camp out of shape and was disinterested at times last year.  If he is physically unfit to play or the club needs a spark, a younger Robinho can sub in or start in his place.  On the bench is the all-time leading scorer in European competition in Inzaghi.  So your front line has youth, experience, height, quickness, and speed.

A concern expressed by Niccolo in the preseason was Milan’s aging in the midfield.  Kevin-Prince Boateng, who showed great potential in the World Cup (as well as a need for his game to mature), provides that young depth and long-term starter the club was seeking in the offseason.  The unheralded signing of Sokratis also provides some talented depth for the backline, which at times struggled last year and had a penchant for allowing careless goals.  If he’s healthy, American national Oguchi Onyewu also gives the club a talented defender off the bench.

Another aspect is the emergence of Alexandre Pato.  Scoring twice on Sunday and looking very good in the preseason, this could be his breakout season and at age 20 a precursor to many successful seasons for AC Milan.  The moves this summer allow him to mature within a system where he is not the biggest name or has all the offensive pressure on him.

On the other hand, the expensive acquisition of Robinho can arguably be throwing money at an underachiever.  After excelling at a young age in Spain, the Brazilian clashed with management and the EPL culture in Manchester City, leading to his sale this transfer season.  Management likely hopes pairing him with Ronaldinho will lead to a resurgence and comfort on and off the pitch.  Also, the club’s defense is still solid but not spectacular and was a weakness last season, especially against Inter Milan.

So, does AC Milan now have the talent to be the favorites in Serie A?  Going into the season Inter was the consensus favorites and the club has kept its key players, especially Maicon.  I also give them the edge in managers with Bentiez’s experience.  I still consider Inter Milan the favorites for Serie A but the gap has closed considerably and the Milan derbies this year will be epic.

Agree or disagree?  Share your comments below or on Twitter @roberthayjr.

Today’s UEFA Champions League draw was one that should prove that Serie A is still one of the premier leagues in the world, and that Inter is arguably the world’s best club.  The Nerazzurri swept the UEFA individual awards: Goalkeeper of the Year (Julio Cesar), Defender of the Year (Maicon), Midfielder of the Year (Wesley Sneijder), Striker of the Year (Diego Milito), and Footballer of the Year (Milito again).  Milito scored both goals in Inter’s defeat of Bayern Munich in last season’s Champions League final.

But of course the big news is the draw, and with Sampdoria’s loss this week Serie A has three teams represented in the Champions League – defending champion Inter Milan, AS Roma, and AC Milan.  The draw was a mixed bag for all three, but all have a good chance of advancing.

Inter was placed in Group A along with Werder Bremen, Tottenham Hotspur, and FC Twente.  Bremen is of course the club that eliminated Sampdoria, and so it has a second chance to knock off a Serie A team.  Tottenham is playing in its first Champions League since 1963, and has a potent attack led by Peter Crouch and Jermain Defoe.  FC Twente are the reigning Dutch champions but are making their first  Champions League group stage appearance ever.

This is a tough draw for Rafa Benitez’s club, but they will not have to travel far for away matches, two of which (White Hart Lane and De Grolsch Veste) hold fewer than 40,000 spectators.  They won’t go through the group stage undefeated, but it’s hard to see how Inter doesn’t advance from this group probably at the top.  My instinct is a loss either at Tottenham or Twente, but they finish first in their group.

Their rivals AC Milan also face a group of quality opponents rich in history, possibly making them part of this year’s “Group of Death”.  Milan (a Pot 1 club) is in Group G with Real Madrid, Ajax, and Auxerre.  Last year Milan went to Madrid and escaped with a upset 3-2 victory, helping them advance from the group.  This year, they will face the defending Champions League winning manager Jose Mourinho who is looking for a third title with his third team.  Ajax is one of Europe’s most famous clubs, but does not have the level of talent it has had in past years.  Auxerre is the French club that has a knack for upsets – it qualified for the group stage by knocking off Zenit St. Petersburg.

Jose Mourinho is likely salivating to play in Milan again and knock off the Rossoneri.  I have my doubts that AC Milan can go into Madrid and beat Real Madrid again, but they can advance from this group.  The key is not to lose focus when playing Ajax or Auxerre, because both are more than capable of advancing themselves.  This group will also have a ton of attention paid to it simply because of the names involved.  As such, Allegri will have a tough tightrope between preparing for his group and the domestic league.  Still I expect AC Milan to finish second and advance.

The third Champions League team Roma will be expected to finish second in their group, but because of the balance in this group all four have the possibility of advancing.  The Pot 2 team drew Group E headlined by Champions League runner-ups Bayern Munich, which will be a tough test for the Giallorossi.  The upset pick from this group will be FC Basel, Switzerland’s most successful club who have played in European competition since 1999.  While Roma has more talent and big names, Basel will not be an easy victory.  The fourth club, CFR Cluj, is a Romanian club that under new ownership in the 2000s has found success after being a second division team most of their history.  Roma fans will remember this club as the one in 2008 that came to Rome and won 2-1 in the Champions League.  I expect Roma to advance, but to have to battle the entire way.

My prediction is that all three Serie A clubs will advance, one in first and two in second.  But what do you think?  Tell us in the comments section, in the poll below, and on Twitter @roberthayjr

[polldaddy poll=3679105]

Last season was a special one for the Blucerchiati, as they finished the season in fourth place in Serie A and qualified for the Champions League.  The club also unveiled a striker-duo that could not only lead Sampdoria to further success but form the basis of a more potent attack on the Italian national team.  But Sampdoria’s rivals have not sat still this offseason (including arch rival Genoa) and the club must adjust to being one of the clubs on top, not only seeing if they can make a run at the Top 3 but hold-off much improved Juventus, Palermo, and others.

Management: Luigi Del Neri did such a good job developing and leading Sampdoria last season that he was promptly snatched away by Juventus in the offseason.  Into the void stepped former Chievo Verona manager Domenico Di Carlo.  In an odd twist of fate, Sampdoria’s 2-1 victory over Parma in 2008 cost Di Carlo his first Serie A job, when he failed to lead Parma out of the relegation zone early in the season.  He has received great praise for his ability to be so successful with Chievo, a club with a budget much smaller than most Serie A teams.  This will only be his fourth year coaching in Serie A, however, and the expectations are much higher than they were at Chievo.

Transfer Market: The club had a quiet offseason save for reshaping the keeper position.  Last year’s starter Storari is in Milan and his replacement is Gianluca Curci from Siena.  He’s young at 25 and was at one time an heir apparent to Gigi Buffon on the Azzurri, although he has not been called up to the team since 2008.  This season could be a chance for him to make his case for inclusion.  Another player added to the roster is Nicola Pozzi, who is a depth addition to the front line.

Key Players and Formation: A concern going into the season has to be the defense after the disappointing Champions League play-in versus Bremen.  A key starter on the backline is Daniele Gastaldello who has ninety-six appearances for the club since 2008.  He will likely be flanked by a combination of Marius Stankevicius, Stefano Lucchini and Massimo Volta.  I expect the young Swiss international Jonathan Rossini to also compete for substantial playing time.

Captain and Sampdoria stalwart Angelo Palombo returns to anchor a talented midfield after there was some speculation he could go in the offseason.  On his right will be former Viola player Franco Semioli who notched two goals last season.  Young star-in-the-making Andrea Poli also returns to gain valuable experience and could be a future member of the Italian national team.  Depending on his injury sustained in Tuesday’s match, Argentine Fernando Tissone enters the Serie A season as a starter in a midfield where, depending on the match, Di Carlo could play four or five players.

Of course the big names for Sampdoria are the two strikers – Antonio Cassano and Giampaolo Pazzini.  Both had excellent ’09-’10 seasons and both legitimately deserved to play in South Africa, although only one did.  They have picked up where they left off against Bremen, scoring all four of the team’s goals.  If they stay healthy and motivated, Sampdoria again will have one of the most dangerous attacks in Serie A.  If they do not, however, the depth is less spectacular.

Outlook: This week’s Champions League loss was a heartbreaker for the club, and showed some of its faults to an international audience.  Nevertheless, this is essentially the same club that finished fourth last season, and they should be expected to compete for the top four again.  A couple of keys for the season will be [a] how the players adjust to Di Carlo’s scheme and how Di Carlo adjusts to Top Four calcio, [b] if Cassano behaves himself and is as productive as he can be, and [c] if this team can handle both a Serie A schedule and the Europa League.

Named one of this blog’s most surprising teams of 2009-2010, Parma not only survived their first season back in Serie A but finished eighth, two spots ahead of the team that finished before them in Serie B and three points behind Juventus.  The club scored in all but nine of their Serie A matches last season, better than AC Milan.  So the club responded to such incredible success by not retaining their manager and bringing in a manager from a club who finished below them.  However, with their young core of players surrounded by productive veterans, Parma will again be a hard club to beat.

The Manager: Pasquale Marino walks into a great situation, much better than his previous position.  While he was fired then rehired by Udinese, he is considered one of the top young managers in Serie A (at age 48).  He prefers an attacking style and will likely use three forwards this year.

The Transfer Market: Quite possibly the biggest get by Parma this offseason was Sebastian Giovinco, the “Atomic Ant”.  The young Juventus midfielder is in Parma on loan after looking for a new team to gain some playing time.  He is one of Italy’s bright young stars and should excel with Parma this season.  Also added from the English Premier League’s Manchester City is striker Valeri Bojinov, who had stints previously in Juventus and Fiorentina. Their biggest loss is the transfer of Davide Lanzafame to Juventus; the young midfielder’s attacking ability would have been useful for Marino.

Formation and Key Players: Marino will play a 3-4-3 or 4-3-3 if he continues his past habit of fielding an attacking squad.  As such, his three strikers will be an important part of the squad, and he does have quality options.  The biggest name up front is Hernan Crespo.  Although thirty-five years old, the Argentine can still contribute for his original club.  Bojinov will also likely start up front and Giovinco may also be moved forward due to the lack of depth at this position.  If Giovinco stays in the midfield, young Alberto Paloschi will be the third striker.  The 20 year old has good Italian youth team experience and moved to Parma from Milan for playing time.

The midfield and defenders will primarily be returning players.  Daniele Galloppa will be counted on to distribute the ball and set up scoring opportunities, so his center midfielder position will be critical to this offense.  Parma will also need captain Stefano Morrone healthy from his injuries sustained at times last year to provide quality in the midfield.  On defense, a key addition is Gabriel Paletta who came over to the club from Boca Juniors in Argentina.  The young center back, who at one time played sparingly at Liverpool, is a seasoned 24 years old and upgrades the backline.

Outlook: Undoubtedly this team overachieved last season, but not by much.  There is some young talent on this club, and it has been greatly improved by management.  The Atomic Ant will finally be able to showcase his ability and add some punch to their attack.  But their level of talent is still not on par with the the top four, so expect a finish right around where they finished last year.

In 2005-2006, Napoli was looking to escape dire finances and Serie C1.  In 2010-2011, Napoli can credibly claim that it is competing for a Champions League berth.  The Partenopei led by their president Aurelio De Laurentiis have been slowly built up and well managed to the point where last season they qualified for their their second Europa League in three seasons.  Their big off-season signing of Edinson Cavani gives the team’s supporters hope that they can finish in the top four this year, and their expectations are not outrageous.

Management: De Laurentiis has spent and will continue to spend money to get the right players for his club.  His hiring of former Sampdoria manager Walter Mazzarri last season to replace Roberto Donadoni was a good one, as he resurrected the listless club and guided them to sixth place in the standings.  He has said the right things this offseason, including making it his goal for the club to continue improving in Italy and in Europe.

The Transfer Market: Napoli’s offseason can be judged a success for two reasons – they signed Edinson Cavani and they did not lose a key contributor to their rivals.  Cavani made his name in this year’s World Cup scoring for Uruguay against Germany, but maybe more importantly he can no longer help the team ahead of Napoli in the standings, Palermo.  He has scored 34 goals since 2007 and is only 23 years old, so he could blossom further in Marrazzi’s style.

Not leaving on transfer this year were Italian national Fabio Quagliarella or Marek Hamsik.  Luca Cigarini was sent to Sevilla and Erwin Hoffer was sent to Bundesliga, but both players can be easily replaced.  And to good news is that De Laurentiis has said he is not done on the transfer market and he will wait until after Napoli’s Europa League match against Elfsborg to sign another player, depending on the outcome.

Key Players and the Formation: With the depth in midfield, expect Napoli to field a 3-4-2-1 or 3-4-3 formation this season.  This will allow some attacking midfielders to move up and support a shallow core of strikers (although they are deep on talent).

Defensively Napoli is an experienced group.  Morgan De Sanctis is the starter currently for both Azzurri teams and while not spectacular, the keeper’s spot is solid.  In front of De Sanctis will certainly be Paolo Cannavaro but next to him is a bit in flux.  Gianluca Grava and Salvatore Aronica are both on the wrong side of thirty, and Hugo Campagnaro and Fabiano Santacroce will likely push to start on defense.  Regardless, don’t be surprised if Napoli makes a move to strengthen its defense in the next week.

The star of the midfield is Hamsik.  Although he failed to score against Italy in the World Cup, Hamsik captained his team out of group stage and, at 23, is set to have a huge year.  He will likely flow between a traditional midfield spot and further up, acting at times as a forward, depending on who else is starting with him in midfield.  If Napoli does goes with four midfielders, there will be a log jam for all four spots.  Talented players like Juan Carlos Zuniga may come off the bench because there is not a space for him to play.

Pairing with Cavani will be a combination of Lavezzi and/or Quagiarella.  Quagliarella needs to carry over his strong World Cup performance into the club season and continue to be strong in the box to add a different scoring dimension.  If any of these three struggle, Hamsik could be moved forward in the formation to assist in scoring or Napoli could scour the market for a new body.

Outlook: This team is good, and should do well in the Europa League if it continues to get draws like Elfsborg.  Whether it has the depth to compete in the Europa League and Serie A is another question, but the club has enough combinations of players to make it work.  Does this team have enough talent to make a run at the top four?  Yes if the big name strikers live up to their billing, the backline doesn’t show its age, and the team’s World Cup players play as well as they did in South Africa.  Will all these things happen?  On that I am slightly more pessimistic.

Management: Luigi De Canio is entering his second full year with the club after coming on board late in the 2008-2009 season to try and save the club from relegation.  He was unsuccessful and was initially let go, only to re-up with the club a few weeks later.  He is known as a “salvation specialist” as he helped Siena and other Italian clubs avoid relegation in the last decade.  He is known for getting the most out of young players, and will not be over-matched in Serie A.

Transfer Market: The club’s goal in the transfer market so far has been to acquire players who, even if they lacked a large number of Serie A minutes, have enough top flight experience to add quality minutes to the club.  Their best signing then may have been former Juventus midfielder Ruben Olivera.  The Uruguayan national has eight Serie A goals in 42 matches, and adds needed talent in the Giallorossi attack.

All told, they have three players on loan from the Serie A Big Three.  They were also able to take on loan Schalke 04 defender Tore Reginiussen.  The Norwegian, who can also move up to the midfield, was the victim of a numbers game in the Bundesliga club and wanted to play more minutes.  He does have eight caps with the Norwegian national club.

Key Players and Formation:  A major concern for Lecce fans is the starting keeper Antonio Rosati.  The 27 year old has his only Serie A experience with Lecce but has appeared in 37 matches for the club since 2002.  Fortunately for him, the defense in front of him has some quality players.  Inter loanee Giulio Donati, who was recently called up for Italy’s U-20 match against Hungary, will likely pair with Reginiussen, U-21 and former Fiorentina defender Davide Brivio, and Brazilian Gustavo.  If this is the starting backline, then all four starting defenders will be new to the club this year.

Captain Guillermo Giacomazzi anchors the midfield for the Giallorossi.  He is the record-holder for more Serie A appearances with the club and has 27 career goals for the Apulia-based team.  If Olivera is moved forward then taking his place in midfield will be another Uruguayan and Schalke product Carlos Grossmuller, who has twenty-five career goals.  Another midfield option is career Serie B player Gianni Munari or the youngster Andrea Bertolacci.  Although 19, the Roma loanee has eleven caps for the various Italian national youth clubs.

Expect Olivera to be moved forward in De Canio’s formation as the lack of quality forwards is a concern heading into the 2010-2011 season.  The most talented player is Daniele Corvia, who had seventeen goals for the club last season.  His previous season high, however, had been six.  Brought in to bolster the attack is Ignacio Piatti, who has experience in Serie A, Ligue 1, Turkey, and Argentina.

Outlook: The combination of a poor attack and a poor keeper leads to relegation, and unless the club addresses these issues in the transfer market I would not expect much from Lecce.  There is some talent on this club, however, and they will battle to stay in Serie A the entire year.  They have reinforced the squad, but need additional help to achieve salvation once again.

Mention the 2009-2010 season to Juventus’ 170 million fans and they will shake their head in disgust.  Italy’s most successful and beloved soccer team was a shell of itself, missing out on a European tournament spot due to poor play and aging players.  It is not a coincidence that the Italian national team also failed to live up to expectations in the World Cup, as Juve players made up a large contingent of the team.  Overall, it was a season to forget in Stadio Olimpico and the club wasted no time in cleaning house, replacing individuals from the team president down.  The new Juventus still has many familiar names, but has strengthened its weaknesses to make a run at the top four.

Management: Jean-Claude Blanc, the brainchild behind the new Juventus stadium, was forced out in May 2010 and replaced with Andrea Agnelli, the fourth member of his family to run Juventus.  Similar to Blanc, he has a business background and is tasked with maintaining the profitability of the club.  No doubt part of his financial plan includes UEFA tournament money.

His first task upon being hired was to grab Luigi Del Neri from Sampdoria as a permanent replacement for Ciro Ferrara.  Del Neri guided Sampdoria to a top four finish and was in demand this offseason.  His 4-4-2 style will be a good fit for Juventus, and look for the team to focus a bit more on defense this season.  Del Neri could, however, actually play more of a 4-2-2-2 if he extends the wings and moves them forward in the attack.  Juventus in their matches this month have also played a 4-3-3 at times.  He’s seen success at Atalanta before guiding Sampdoria to the Champions League, and he was the best person available for the job.

The Transfer Market: Juventus was active in the transfer market, as to be expected, sending out older and more expensive players and bringing in both quality starters and key backups.  Maybe the biggest name to come to Juventus was Pepe, acquired on loan from Udinese with an option to buy.  Del Neri knows Pepe from his time in Palermo, and has added him as an attack option on the right side.  The club also beefed up its defense, which is discussed in depth below.

The continuing story of this offseason is the departures from the club, or a house cleaning if you prefer.  Italian national and rapidly aging defender Fabio Cannavaro has left for the UAE soccer league and a hefty contract.  Christian Poulsen was transferred to Liverpool for about €5.5 million to free up some salary and space after a disappointing stint with the club.  The biggest loss long-term, however, may be the loss of Sebastian Giovinco to Parma.  The young playmaker had been tabbed by fans as the next Juve star, but he grew tired of waiting to break into the starting XI.

Key Players: Starting in the back of the 4-4-2, vice-captain and all-world keeper Gigi Buffon begins the season on the injured list, leaving AC Milan acquisition Marco Storari as the starter.  Storari will never cause people to forget Buffon, but he is experienced and talented enough to hold down the position until Buffon is healthy.

Coming into the new season, Del Neri knew he needed to revamp the defense after Juventus allowed 55 goals last season.  He acquired rising star Leonardo Bonucci from Bari and Marco Motta from Roma to partner with stalwarts Giorgio Chiellini and Fabio Grosso, or if Grosso leaves during this transfer window, Paolo De Ceglie.  The two new additions will strengthen the backline and makes defense a team strength.  Look for Bonucci to become the next Fabio Grosso in his time at Juventus.

If Del Neri continues his traditional formation, the midfield will see two holding and two attacking wingers.  As mentioned, Pepe will man the right wing and replace Mauro Camoranesi, who regardless of his transfer status should be replaced by a younger player.  Claudio Marchisio, one of the players who actually looked good in last season’s debacle, could start on the other wing, with Mohammed Sissoko in the middle.  UPDATE – Juventus added another potential starter to the midfield with CSKA Moscow winger Milos Krasic.

Up front, Del Neri against Shamrock moved Pepe and attacking midfielder Davide Lanzafame (Parma) to the forward position with Amauri.  While this could be an attacking option, I can see a rotation (assuming a 4-4-2) of Amauri, Trezeguet, and Del Piero as a potent attack.

This is, of course, assuming Diego is sent to a Bundesliga club, where he has been rumored to be going (or not going).  If Diego stays, the forward position has the potential to be one of the deepest in Serie A.

Outlook: This preview could change if Juventus makes any more changes on the transfer market, which is possible.  But as their club stands, Juventus is definitely a favorite to finish in the top four.  Even without a healthy Buffon to begin the season, the defense is improved from last season and will be a strength.  The attack will be more “exciting” than last season with a good variety of scorers that Del Neri can turn to for goals.  Under new management and with Del Neri’s vision revitalizing the club, there is no reason this club will not move higher in the standings.  Whether they can challenge for a scudetto will depend on if they can improve on their record against the top clubs.

Italy’s oldest soccer club finished a disappointing ninth last season, and the management has made it clear this offseason that such a result is unacceptable.  Disappointing play by a number of key players left the club outside the top six, one year after qualifying for the UEFA Cup and two years after returning to Serie A after a long climb up the Italian leagues.  As is his style, club president Enrico Preziosi aggressively spent money this offseason, acquiring a list of talented players that he expects to lead his team back to the top six in Serie A.  With one of the best managers in Italy, anything less would be a disappointment for the Griffin.

The Transfer Market: If Genoa does qualify for a European tournament next spring, the genesis of that success can be seen in July 2010.  During the summer, the club brought in and sent out a number of players, with the end result being a balanced and competitive club.

A perfect example of this philosophy is the keeper position: Genoa spent the entire summer looking for a top-notch keeper, at times pursuing Chievo’s Sorrentino and Cagliari’s Marchetti.  Finally, they bought Eduardo from Sporting Braga and sent Marco Amelia to AC Milan, and if Eduardo plays as well as he did in the World Cup for Portugal, this will be the signing of the summer.  Genoa also followed Roma’s path from last season and signed Luca Toni to give them a tall attacking option in the middle.  Backing him up is Mattia Destro, an eighteen year old on loan from Inter who has scored 21 goals in 29 matches for various Italian youth national teams!

A key player added for depth and the future is attacking midfielder Franco Zuculini, who is on loan from Hoffheim.  The young Argentine had one goal in seven appearances as a nineteen year old in Bundesliga, and started for Racing Club at age eighteen.  While he will likely begin the season on the bench, he is the type of key reserve that will be the difference for Genoa this season – a player talented enough to fill in and contribute if an injury occurs.

Rumors continue to surround the club, with the latest reports that it is still in the running for World Cup star Kevin Prince-Boateng and Tottenham Hotspur’s Giovani Dos Santos (although that rumor is being denied).

Key Players:  If Genoa wants to make a run at a European tournament, it has to improve its defense – the rossoblu allowed 61 goals last season.  Along with Eduardo, the club added Andrea Ranocchia (on loan from Inter) to bolster the defense.  Look for Ranocchia to partner with Italian national team member Domenico Criscito and Rafinha (Schalke 04), but also in the mix are Dario Dainelli (Fiorentina), Salvatore Bocchetti, and a host of other players who have starting experience in major leagues.

In the middle will be captain Marco Rossi and new signed Miguel Veloso.  The Portuguese holding midfielder/defender was in high demand this offseason, but the Griffin pried him from his home country by trading money and Alberto Zapater to Sporting Lisbon.

Expect Luca Toni to start in the middle of the 3-4-3 and provide a physical presence for the Genoa attack.  On his flank could be returning forward Robert Acquafresca, who spent some time the past few seasons being traded to and from Genoa.  Also likely starting is Rodrigo Palacio, who had partnered with the departed Hernan Crespo to form a potent attack.

Outlook:  This team has invested heavily in the transfer market (and may continue to do so) with the goal of getting a European tournament spot.  Defensively this team is greatly improved and the flexibility of the players they obtained will help Eduardo reduce the number of goals allowed this season.  The club last season had balanced scoring, and you can expect the same this year as a number of players on their roster have the ability to score.  This team has the talent and leadership to qualify for the Europa Cup OR the final Champions League position, but a top three finish may be out of their reach.

Looking back on our 2010-2011 Serie A preview to this point, it is interesting to see the number of teams that have failed to actively work the transfer market for improvements to their clubs, even though they are in danger of finishing at the bottom of the table.  Whether due to money or management, some clubs sit back and hope that they are doing just enough to survive.  But this has not been Chievo Verona’s style over the past decade – careful management of the transfer market by acquiring veteran Serie A players or low-cost young players that are a steady and long-term presence for the club.  The result has been success in the early part of the decade, and survival in the latter half.

Last season, Chievo finished fourteenth in the standings, an impressive finish for such a small club.  It was their second year in Serie A and the second year they had to battle late into the season to remain in the top league.  It is hard to believe that since 2000-2001, the club has spent only one season in Serie B after taking 71 years to reach the top flight.  Based simply on their creative management and smart signings, Chievo excelled in Serie A at the beginning of the last decade, but it will be interesting to see if their moves this year can keep them in Seria A.

Management: Because of the names that have managed Chievo this decade, saying that Domenico Di Carlo was the best is high praise.  Di Carlo took over the club during its Serie B season and led them to a second place finish and promotion, then over the past two seasons helped the club stay afloat in Serie A.  He has moved on to coach Cassano and Pazzini at Sampdoria, and his replacement is Stefani Pioli.  Pioli was the former manager at Parma who coached them near the bottom of the Serie A table and has been in Serie B ever since.  Despite his lack of success at the top level, he is well regarded in the sport and has promised the club will play “beautiful calcio”.

The transfer market: Rather then trying to buy one or two big name players or rising stars, Chievo has been stocking the club with veteran Serie A players and holding on to their best players.  A perfect example of their acquisition strategy is Mariano Bogliacino, a Uruguayan midfielder who has spent the last five seasons in Napoli and was acquired on loan in July.  His numbers are ok but he has played in 130 plus Serie A matches the past five seasons.   Another loaner is holding midfielder Roberto Guana, who started thirty-four matches last season for Bologna on loan from Palermo.  Their biggest move, however, may have been the permanent acquisition of defender Gennaro Sardo, who came over at the beginning of last season on loan from Catania and excelled for the Flying Donkeys.

The players: The name mentioned most this offseason was keeper Stefano Sorrentino, a first class keeper who excelled in his return to Serie A last season.  He appeared in thirty-eight matches and was rumored to be a potential call-up for Lippi’s national team.  Despite this, he was almost sent to Genoa in a deal that would have netted the Flying Donkeys striker Riccardo Meggiorini and freed the club to sign Rubinho.

The almost-acquisition of Meggiorini highlights the club’s need for offense this season.  Last year’s leading scorer was captain Sergio Pellissier with eleven goals – the player with the second most had four!  The Chievo captain is truly the backbone of this club – he scored 22 goals when they were promoted in 2007-2008, but struggled to score the beginning of the next season when the club looked headed back to Serie B.  His dedication to the club and success since 2000 in Serie A was rewarded with a national team call-up in 2009.

The most consistent part of this club is the backline, manned by Andrea Mantovani, Nicolas Frey, and Gennaro Sardo.  Mantovani has played with Chievo since 2005 and Frey (brother of Fiorentina’s keeper) since 2008.  The Flying Donkeys allowed 42 goals last season, but only scored 37.

Outlook:  Chievo has a history of being well managed and playing well, the only way a club from such a small town can consistently compete with some of the best clubs in the world.  Based on their last ten years, it would be a mistake to simply assume the Flying Donkeys are doomed to spend the entire season near or in the relegation zone.  However, looking at the roster and their lack of scoring ability, the club looks in danger of returning to Serie B.  In order to excel this season, they need the veterans they acquired to produce (preferably with some goals) and the club needs to repeat its September 2009 form, where they had two wins and two draws to give their season a good start.  With their first five matches against Catania, at Genoa, versus Brescia, at Napoli, and hosting Lazio, a similar start is possible and needed.

The other Sicilian club in Serie A last season, the Elefanti finished in the bottom half of the standings but avoided relegation by mid-April.  Since their return to Serie A in 2006, this has been a trend for the club – struggle at the beginning of the year only to secure enough points to avoid relegation with time to spare.  But their bitter rivals Palermo are playing in the Europa League, and fans of the club have to wonder when their team can make that next step into tournament contention.  This is a talented club that showed last season that it can compete with the best in Serie A; the question is can they build on that success and take the next step.

Transfer Review: Juventus must have been scouting Catania intensely this offseason as they have signed one of Catania’s strikers and pursued another.  Last month, Juventus acquired striker Jorge Martinez for 12 million euro (a move panned by former Juventus management).  Juve however was not able to acquire Maxi Lopez, who Catania refused to sell.  Their only acquisition on the market was permanently acquiring the rights to defender Giovanni Marchese, a former up-and-comer who only made four appearances for the Elefanti.  They have, however, been rumored to be close to completing a deal for Rosario Central striker Milton Caraglio.

Meet the New Manager: The club has to feel like a bit of a stepping stone – this offseason manager Sinisa Mihajilovic left the club to take over Fiorentina.  The previous season, Catania’s manager Walter Zenga left the club to manage rival Palermo.  New man Marco Giampaolo successfully guided Ascoli to Serie A earlier this decade and has two somewhat successful stints with Cagliari.  But once again this club is starting from square one after a manager with proven success has left.

Players to Know: The star of this club is the talented and creative Maxi Lopez.  The midseason acquisition scored twelve goals in seventeen matches and is finally seeming to live up to his incredible potential.  A full season with him leading the attack gives the club a new dimension – his height was an asset last season in set pieces and created opportunities on crosses into the box.  Lopez is one of twelve Elefanti with Argentinean nationality, an oddity in Serie A.  The club has good depth at this position.

Another player who was linked to every big club in Italy is midfielder Marco Biagianti.  The twenty-six year old Florentine has been Catania’s most consistent player, making more appearances than anyone else on the club last season.

But the strength of this team could be its backline.  Anchoring the defense again will likely be Christian Terlizzi and Matias Silvestre, although the lineup has changed over the past two years depending on the manager.  What will be consistent will be the play of Argentine keeper Mariano Andujar, who in addition to his solid year last season gained good experience in the 2010 World Cup, albeit only in training.  The club allowed only 43 goals in 38 matches in 2009-2010, and to remain successful it will have to continue its defensive excellence.

Outlook: This team is solid all around.  It can score with Lopez, hold the middle of the field with Biagianti, and defend against any club in Serie A.  Last season, the team finished with a record number of points, in the process knocking off Inter, Milan, Juventus, and Palermo.  The talent is there for a possible run at a top ten finish, but once again the club will have to adjust to a new manager and a new style.  If there is a hitch in the adjustment (and their history has shown that there often is) then this team’s chances will again be in the bottom half, worried about avoiding the bottom three.

For a club that has had an unimpressive record in Serie A over the years, Brescia has a proud soccer history.  Home of Andrea Pirlo and the last club for the legendary Roberto Baggio, the Rondinelle return to Serie A for the first time since the 2004-2005 season.  Unlike most clubs that spend their first year in Serie A acquiring talent with at least some top flight experience, in the hope of avoiding immediate relegation, Brescia has been quiet on the transfer front hoping that their current roster is good enough to finish seventeenth or better.

Brescia lead Serie B with 21 wins last season but fell to third place late in the season and had to enter the Serie B playoffs to be promoted.  They advanced past Torino 2-1 on aggregate.  But if history is a guide, the club should not expect to stay up – only twice since 1950 (1965-68, 2000-2005) has it stayed in Serie A for more than a year.  To build a permanent place in Lega Calcio Serie A, they need to coax more production from current players while being more active on the transfer market.

The Manager: Giuseppe Iachini is a career Serie B former player and coach whose best coaching job was leading Chievo Verona to a promotion after the 2007-2008 season.  He was, however, fired by the club only a month into the 2008 season and took over Brescia in 2009.

Transfer Activity: The club so far has been absolutely quiet.  Their biggest signing has been keeper Matteo Sereni from Torino, where he made eighty-nine appearances over three seasons.  He will compete with Michele Arcari for the starting job in goal.  Brescia is rumored to still be active in the transfer market, looking at acquiring forward Alessandro Diamanti from West Ham or Jeda from Juventus.

Players to Watch: Possibly the best player on the club is forward Andrea Caracciolo, who came over from Sampdoria in 2008 after losing his starting job to Antonio Cassano.  He finished last season with twenty-four goals and the year prior with fifteen.  He was linked with a move to Fiorentina last season but the club has held on to him to have at least one Serie A quality player up front.

Another player that was almost poached from the club is defender Gaetani Berardi.  The twenty-one year old has played his entire career with the Rondinelle and has capped with the Swiss youth team.  In fact, Brescia has a core group of very young players who contribute, including eighteen year old midfielder Fabrizio Paghera and former Stoke City midfielder Adam Vass.  The captain of the club is Davide Possanzini, who has spent the majority of his career starting on Serie B clubs.

Outlook: Signing Diamanti or another player who can start for a top flight club is an absolute necessity for this club.  Otherwise, they are an early favorite to be relegated this season.  The roster is composed of Serie B regulars and Serie A backups, a bad recipe for success at the top level.  One reason to watch this club is its young core of players who could be poached in the next transfer window or at the end of the year.  If the young players mature quickly and players like Caracciolo have career years, then maybe Brescia could survive.  But it doesn’t look likely.

In mid-July, I posted a story on this site proposing that Bari, if they played their cards right, could be poised for a top six finish.  In the intervening four weeks, they lost a top-flight defender and whiffed on a major signing, leaving the club in worse position than they were just a month ago.  Bari rode its superb defending to a top-ten finish last season, but with the loss of its two star defenders, Bari fans have to wonder if this club could be in danger of playing next year in Serie B.

The organization: At the end of the 2009-2010 season, sports director Giorgio Perinetti, who had guided the club to Serie A the prior season, left to take a similar position with Siena.  In his place is Guido Angelozzi, a veteran front-office man with experience mostly in Serie B clubs including most recently Lecce.  It’s too early to judge the impact of this change, but Bari’s ill-fated courting of Sebastian Giovinco must concern Galletti fans that he is unable to be an effective Serie A director.

Bari brought back Giampiero Ventura as manager after a very successful first season at the helm of the club.  Ventura replaced the popular Antonio Conte after the latter’s acrimonious departure from the club in June 2009.  Ventura proved his tactical skills by guiding the club to excellent results against Inter, Milan, and Juventus.

Defenders: As I mentioned above, the defense was the strength of this club last year, conceding 49 goals all season.  The Galletti captain, Jean-Francois Gillet, is a major reason for this.  The Belgian national keeper is one of the best at his position in Serie A, and certainly one of the least talked about.  As long as he remains healthy, the club has no concerns between the posts.

The concern for this year however is in front of Gillet.  Last year, breakout stars Andrea Ranocchia and Leonard Bonucci became two of the rising stars in Italian soccer with their play for Bari.  Both are now gone – Bonucci is now with Juventus and Ranocchia is co-owned by Genoa and Inter.  Returning are Cristian Stellini and Salvatore Masiello, both quality defenders.  Filling out the backline could be former Sampdorian Marco Rossi and Alessandro Parisi, or a newcomer like Felice Pepe.

Midfield: A major reason for i Galletti‘s success last season was the emergence of some quality midfielders.  Edgar Alvarez scored three goals and was a mainstay in the center of the pitch.  Other returning starters include Sergio Almiron (5 goals) and Massimo Donati, an early-season pick-up from Celtic.  One of Bari’s biggest additions was midfielder Nico Pulzetti from Livorno, a starter last year for a poor team looking to live up to his potential.

Forwards: Bari’s biggest move this offseason may have been a player it kept.  Management negotiated a co-ownership deal with Udinese to keep Vito Barreto, Bari’s leading scorer last season.  The move will help the club’s sometimes suspect attack at the very least remain potentially potent.  Joining Barreto up front could be new acquisition and Algerian World Cup player Abdelkader Ghezzal, acquired from Siena after scoring six goals last season.  Other potential starters include Vitaly Kutuzov and perennial underachiever Ferdinando Sforzini.

Predicted Lineup:Gillet (GK), Stellini, Masiello, Rossi, Parisi (D), Almiron, Alvarez, Pulzetti, Gazzi (M), Barreto, Ghezzal (F)

Outlook: Last season, Bari took Serie A by storm and finished a strong tenth just a year after being promoted.  Their season included two draws with Inter and a win over Juventus.  Losing Ranocchia and Bonucci will be a major impediment for this club, and leaves Bari with some concerns on the backline.  If they can find a consistent goal scorer to go with Barreto and play some solid defense, they are a mid-table type of club.  If they cannot, they will be on relegation watch every week.

For Champions League participant Sampdoria, they will take on Bundesliga club SV Werder Bremen on August 18 (away) and August 24 (home).  The Werder are the 2009 UEFA Cup runners-up, losing 2-1 to Shakhtar Donetsk.  The club is one of Germany’s most successful, regularly competing for a title as well as in European competitions.  They’ve won four total titles, most recently in 2003-2004, and finished third last season.  In the 2008-2009 UEFA Cup, they were nicknamed “The Italian Killers” after they defeated Udinese and AC Milan in the competition. 

Their biggest name is Mesut Ozil, who gained fame for his excellent performance in this year’s World Cup.  His scoring ability is the club’s biggest weapon and one Sampdoria will have a hard time stopping.  The club’s backline is anchored by his tall fellow international Per Mertesacker as well as the athletic Brazilian Naldo.  Serie A fans may recognize the team’s newest player, former Inter sub Marko Arnautovic who was acquired from FC Twente.  You can read a team preview at our sister site Bundesliga Talk.  This match-up will be a challenging one for Cassano and company, but if they can grab some goals in Bremen they should be favored with the second match at home.

Inter Milan, AS Roma, and AC Milan are the other three Serie A clubs participating in the Champions League.  Their draws will be announced at the end of the playoff-round.

In the Europa League, Juventus will face Austrian club SK Sturm Graz, Palermo will face NK Maribor (Slovenia), and Napoli will face IF Elfsborg (Sweden).  The first match will take place August 19, with the return August 26.  The next round pairings will be announced August 27.

Sturm Graz has a history of competing in European tournaments, including last year’s Europa League.  In 2009, they won two qualifiers then the play-off round against Metalist Kharkiv (Ukraine) to qualify for group play.  They finished 1-1-4 and failed to advance, with their only victory coming against Galatasaray 1-0 at home.  This year, they beat Georgia’s Dinamo Tbilsi to reach the play-off round.

NK Maribor is the most successful club in Slovenia’s young soccer history.  The Vijoliasti have won eight league titles and are the only club from the country to play in the Champions League.  The beginning of the last decade saw the team play well despite financial troubles, and last season they captured the Slovenian Cup and Supercup.  Slovenia’s most popular club, they defeated Videoton FC (Hungary) and Hibernian FC (Greece) to reach this stage.  They are 0-2 all-time versus Italian clubs in European competitions.

Elfsborg will prove to be a good test for Napoli, but one that Napoli should pass.  The Swedish club has won five titles, the most recent in 2006, and played in the 2009 UEFA Cup, losing to Lazio.

AC Milan fans saw the best and worst of their squad this weekend in London as the club competed in what has become a big-name tournament.  The Emirates Cup is a two-day preseason event where host Arsenal and three clubs (many of whom are sponsored by Emirates Airlines) compete to win the Emirates trophy but more importantly have the chance to play their entire squads against good competition.

The 2010 edition was won by Arsenal with eight total points, while the Rossoneri finished last with four.  Milan faced the hosts on Saturday and Ligue 1’s Lyon on Sunday, with Celtic as the fourth club.  A win was worth three points and a tie worth one, with a point awarded for each goal scored.

The first match against Arsenal could have gone spectacularly wrong for Milan on Saturday.  They fell behind early on a goal by new Arsenal striker Marouane Chamakh in the 36th minute, and if it were not by some quality keeping by Christian Abbiati they could have been down by more.  Arsenal dominated possession early in the second half as substitutes like Theo Wolcott constantly threatened in the Milan half.  However, Arsenal lived up to their reputation and despite some nice passing, failed to score the decisive second goal.  Alexandre Pato made them pay in the seventy-seventh minute.  He headed in a free kick from Clarence Seedorf from just outside the box.

The second match saw new keeper Marco Amelia start in goal, as well as starters Clarence Seedorf and Marco Borriello.  It was the latter who scored the first goal of the game in the fifty-fifth minute and it was the former who again set up the scoring chance with a nice pass through to Borriello.  While both sides had excellent scoring chances and the Rossoneri played well overall, they still gave up the tying goal in the eightieth minute to deny themselves three points.

While the Emirates Cup is only two preseason matches, AC Milan fans could should feel confident about their club.  Both keepers looked quality although it helped that some serious chances hit the crossbars.  Clarence Seedorf played very well and looks to be ready for the next season.  The new defender Sokratis Papastathopoulos also contributed in the Arsenal match and looks like a good signing so far.  So although the club finished last in the standings, the experience looks to have allowed them to tune up effectively for the new season.

The Telegraph this morning confirmed previous reports that Arsenal is discussing a transfer of Cagliari keeper Federico Marchetti for around $8.5 million.  Marchetti has made it clear that he is seeking a transfer from the Serie A club and Arsenal would seemingly be a good fit.  Most Serie A clubs have settled on their starting keeper for the year and Arsenal is desperately seeking help in goal after poor performances last season from starter Manuel Almunia and backup Lukasz Fabianski (the need for a keeper has been very well documented by Arsenal fans).

Marchetti gained a reputation for himself this summer when he filled in for an injured Gigi Buffon during the World Cup.  The keeper’s performance was less than stellar, allowing four goals in two games, but not embarassing.  As evidenced by his attention on the transfer market, his reputation as a good keeper is intact and I expect him to remain on the Azzurri squad, probably still as the primary backup.

If Marchetti does move to North London, he would be the second potential future Italian national team keeper on the squad.  Arsenal already has on its roster Vito Manone, the third-string keeper last season who has seen some action this preseason as the Gunners look to shakeout their keeper rotation.  The young Manone had a rocky start last year, conceding two goals in his first start against Standard Liege in the UEFA Champions League.  After that start, however, he was solid, even being named Man of the Match after his clean sheet at Fulham in September.  Manone has also made a name for himself at the international level; he currently is the starting keeper for the Italian U21 squad and has conceded no goals in three international appearances.

It is not a given however that either has a definite future with either Arsenal or the Azzurri.  While Marchetti would be the presumed starter for Arsenal if he is signed, he may be a seat-holder for Arsenal’s other young keeper, Wojciech Szczesny.  The Polish keeper is widely seen as the future for Arsenal, and his ascendance may eventually lead him to bypassing Manone and surpassing Marchetti as soon as next season.

On the national team, Marchetti has to prove himself to new manager Cesare Prandelli as a competant backup for Buffon.  Assuming he stays healthy, Buffon will likely be starting keeper through the 2014 World Cup and Marchetti will battle for the #2.  His competition would be Palermo’s Salvatore Sirigu, the former U21 starter and possibly Manone.  Thus it is not a guarantee that either will be the starter after 2014.

However, if you can watch Arsenal play this year and the Marchetti transfer goes through, it may be worthwhile to catch a few matches to see the possible replacement for Gigi Buffon after 2014.

The rumors flying around the Internet recently have been focused on the makeup of the 2010-2011 Inter squad.  Will Balotelli move to Manchester or London (or Madrid)?  Will Maicon reunite with his former manager?  At some point I think every player on the roster has been rumored to move to another club.

But what’s interesting is that this offseason it’s Inter Milan, and not AC Milan, that is dominating the transfer stories.  Silvio Berlusconi’s club is famous for lavishing potential players with grand tours of the facilities, bringing maximum publicity to the club and its dealings so that it is hard to read any Serie A site without seeing an update on Milan.  They always target the high-profile players, bringing in the Ronaldinho’s of the world in their eternal quest to dominate the Italian soccer scene or at least the Italian soccer press.

The lack of big-splash signings are a product of numerous factors, but the biggest may be the behind-the-scenes in-fighting in the organization over money.  Berlusconi continues to be dogged by rumors he is selling the club, despite issuing statements saying he will continue to own it.  It has become apparent that money is an issue for the organization, with AC Milan saying it will not pay full price for Ibrahimovic in a potential transfer from Barcelona.  This could of course be a negotiating ploy, but I have my doubts as the club has suggested even potentially doing a (gasp!) loan deal for the striker!

It doesn’t hurt that the influence of Adriano Galliani, the club’s vice president, may be waning.  The two are at odds over whether Ranaldinho is leaving, with the owner publicly saying the Brazilian can leave if the price is right.  After settling on a third manager in three years Berlusconi may think it is time to make some replacements at the top.

Regardless, AC Milan partisans are angry over the lack of action a year after the club finished third in Serie A.  However, are they correct?  Is AC Milan worse off than they were at the end of the season? It begins with their new managerial hire Massimiliano Allegri.  Looking at Allegri’s career reminds me of college football coach Brian Kelly, a man who improves every squad he coaches regardless of the level.  Three seasons ago Allegri guided Sassuolo to their first ever promotion to Serie B, then twice won the best manager award (Panchina d’Oro) in Serie A for Cagliari.  After trying a manager with no previous Serie A experience, Milan is wise to choose a manager with some track record of success.

On the player side, rumors are flying (Clint Dempsey in, Ronaldinho and Huntelaar out?) but there has been very few actual transfers.  One deal they did make was signing a co-ownership deal with Genoa for keeper Marco Amelia after selling Marco Storari to Juventus.  Amelia is competition with Abbiati who has been ok but not dominant, and the 28 year-old Roman has a little national team experience.  Besides Storari Milan have not lost many players, but have rid themselves of Mancini and Matteo Darmian.

For fans used to an active transfer market this Milan team seems to be setting itself up for failure.  But the upgrade on the bench will help provide stability to the squad – hopefully no more formation shifts mid-season.  Also, if Ronaldinho and Huntelaar are shipped out, the squad will suffer offensively but it is not an insurmountable loss.  Dominic Adiyiah (he of the Suarez “Hand of God 2”), Pato and Inzaghi are a good start up front, and if AC Milan is smart it is looking for one more starting striker.  In short, this team is not far away from contention for a scudetto – I would start worrying a month from now if this club is the same but not yet.

As I always say when I write about transfers, please take this post with a grain of salt – there are so many transfer rumors out there that will never pan out.

That being said, Rafa Benitez should acquire Giuseppe Rossi with the money he acquires from transferring Mario Balotelli.

It is one of the worst-kept secrets in soccer that Inter Milan is shopping Balotelli, primarily to the two Manchesters.  Yesterday, Inter rejected a $25 million bid for him from Manchester City, as they should because they could probably get much more for him, especially if a bidding war erupts between EPL clubs.  However, most of the soccer world anticipates that Balotelli, who has soured on Serie A and Inter, will be playing for a new club next season. 

But a report today from La Gazzetto della Sport confirms that Benitez has at least considered acquiring Giuseppe Rossi from Valencia to replace Balotelli.  While Rossi has publicly committed to remaining with his current club, Inter can use the cash from the Balotelli deal to entice Rossi to return to Italy.  Plus, the American-born player has said he considered returning to Italy to play for Pama.  So while a Serie A return is unlikely, it is not far-fetched.

But what would a Rossi contribute to the 2010-2011 Inter squad?  Tactically he would be an upgrade from Balotelli, as he is right now a more complete player.  Rossi would add to Inter’s impressive striker depth, rotating playing time with Milito and Eto’o.  He had 12 goals in domestic play last year, more than Balotelli.  Adding a rising star like Rossi to the roster would make Inter even more of a favorite to defend at least its Serie A title.

It would also give the club the face of Italian soccer.  As the older contributors to the 2006 World Cup retire from international play, and FIGC officials stress out over who will lead a new generation of Italian stars, Inter could grab the soon-to-be biggest Italian star in soccer.  As talented as de Rossi, Montolivo, and other Italian national team players are, they lack the “Q” rating of a Rossi.  While Juventus has been known as the feeder team for the Azzurri, the Nerazzurri could lay claim to being a team of international stars.  They could have the biggest Italian star (Rossi), possibly the world’s best keeper (Julio Cesar), the world’s best defender (Maicon), Cameroon’s biggest name (Eto’o), etc.  As Champions League champions, Inter Milan could try and maintain their hold on the crown with an international All Star team.

Of course, the transfer market will outdate this post within days likely, but what do you think of an Inter squad with Rossi?

But like all smaller clubs who overachieve and display quality talent, Bari has been raided by the larger clubs.  Rising star Leonardo Bonucci was sold to Juventus in a highly publicized move (for quite a sum of money), leaving a gap in the Bari backline.  In addition to the Azzurri defender, Bari also lost its sports director Giorgio Perinetti, who was instrumental in composing a roster for a successful campaign despite the club losing its manager and going through a potential sale in the first few months of the Serie A season last year.

But new sports director Guido Angelozzi has immediately made his mark upon the squad.  In a move that is critical to the team’s success, he negotiated a co-ownership deal with Udinese to retain top goal scorer Vitor Barreto, allowing Bari to retain its most proficient offensive weapon.  In addition, the club has refused to sell defender Andrea Ranocchia so far this offseason.  Ranocchia was brilliant next to Bonucci and is a potential backline contributor for the Azzurri in Euro 2012. Update: Looks like Bari needs another defender – Ranocchia taken back from loan by Genoa and is now co-owned by Genoa and Inter.

But standing pat was not enough for this club; to offset the losses suffered this offseason the club needs to be active in the transfer market.

So far, Angelozzi and manager Giampiero Ventura have secured two players to help the offense.  The first was Abdelkader Ghezzal from Siena.  Ghezzal was last seen playing for Algeria in the World Cup, where he received a red card in the US match.  He is just blooming as a player after struggling in Ligue 1 early in his career – last season he scored five goals in twenty Serie A matches.  Bari gets Ghezzal for two players who were unlikely to be major contributors for next year’s squad.  The second player is midfielder Nico Pulzetti from relegated club Livorno.  Pulzetti had a down year in Serie A last year one season after he was instrumental to Livorno’s rise to Serie A.

And Bari may not yet be done.  ESPN is reporting that Bari is pursuing Sebastian Giovinco to boost their attack.  The midfielder is an up-and-coming star who was relegated to the bench for most of last season, but has excelled on the Italian Olympic team as well as the U-21 side.  “Formica Atomica” is a future member of the Azzurri who will excel if given the opportunity to direct the Gilletti attack with Ghezzal, Barreto, and Edgar Alvarez.

The club could use another defender to pair with Cristian Stellini and Salvatore Masiello.  They cannot replace a Bonucci, but another center back would go a long way to maintaining their quality defending in front of Jean-Francois Gillet.  This is an important season for the Gilletti.  The club has traditionally jumped up and down between the leagues, but it has the fan base and finances to not only be a top flight club, but a contender for a European spot.  If they sign Giovinco and shore up their defense, there is no doubt they can be contenders for a European tournament spot.

As always, it pays to take all off-season transfer rumors with a grain of salt.  But one rumor within the realm of possibility suggest a move of pure genius by the Rossoneri.

Yahoo Sports is reporting that Fulham star and American national team member Clint Dempsey has been targeted by AC Milan for a potential transfer bid.  The club reportedly has been impressed with Dempsey’s play in England and South Africa, enough so to pay roughly $12 million to add him to their roster.  His match-winning goal in Fulham’s defeat of Juventus in the Europa League also proved to Milan scouts that he could play against Serie A’s best.

Dempsey has been successful in his three year stint with Fulham.  Last season he scored seven goals in 29 Premier League matches, and his Juventus goal has been referred to as the most famous goal in Fulham history.  Internationally, Dempsey’s profile has never been higher, scoring the “Hand of Clod” goal against England and drawing the match-tying penalty kick in the U.S.’s loss to Ghana in this year’s World Cup.  With Roy Hodgson leaving Fulham for Liverpool, now is a good time for him to leave.

But within the context of AC Milan’s actions the past two years does it become clear how genius a signing of Clint Dempsey would be.  From a tactical perspective, Dempsey’s move to AC Milan would simply add him to a list of high-profile strikers the club already possesses.  He would battle up-front for playing time with Ronaldinho, Borriello, Pato, and maybe Huntelaar.  The midfield is equally crowded, but for a team that underachieved last year Dempsey could compete for time.

But the significance is that Dempsey is not just another striker, he is an American soccer star.  Remember that AC Milan last year signed Oguchi Onyewu, the injured American defender who is playing “for free” this year because of his injury.  A healthy “Gooch” is a valuable addition to the defensively challenged AC Milan, but more importantly he is also very popular among US soccer fans.  A Dempsey signing would mean two American stars on the pitch for AC Milan, increasing the clubs already high visibility among American fans.

American soccer fans, especially those converted by the last two World Cups, are looking for international squads to pull for and follow when the World Cup ends.  I suspect many will gravitate to teams with American stars – witness American fans of Everton.  Maybe this is not AC Milan’s primary reason for signing two Americans (they are very talented after all) but the ability to market two of the country’s most popular players could lead to tapping a new market.  Imagine the potential sales of Dempsey AC Milan jerseys.

Also factor in AC Milan’s travel schedule.  This year the club played a friendly in a near-sold out RFK Stadium against a dreadful DC United team, as well a May 30 friendly in Chicago.  Last season the club teamed up with Chelsea, Inter Milan, and Club America to play in the World Football Challenge, which allowed the Rossoneri to play in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Foxborough.  While it may be coincidence, the US friendlies combined with the signing of two American stars shows a strategy of tapping into a rich American soccer market.  And the strategy is a good one that could make one of the world’s richest soccer clubs even richer.

A few weeks back the new logo for Lega Calcio Serie A was unveiled.  As you can see, the new logo is slick and more modern, but American sports fans may see a resemblance to the National Hockey League’s Carolina Hurricanes logo.  Honestly, I have no feelings either way but the comment section is open for you if you do.

The league last week announced its outline of the schedule for the 2010-2011 season, and the biggest change is the addition of more Friday matches.  The league will now have one match on Friday evenings to allow for more rest between European competitions.  There will be one Friday time slot, two Saturday, and three Sunday.

The new season will begin on August 28/29 (less than two months away!) and conclude on May 22.  There will be a winter break from December 19 through January 6, and the four rounds of midweek fixtures will take place November 10, January 6, February 2, and March 2.

The most recent announcement, however, may be the most controversial.  FIGC announced over the weekend that it has reduced the number of non-European players permitted on each roster from two to one.  The goal, according to FIGC, is to force clubs to develop more Italian talent in the wake of the Azzurri’s disastrous World Cup.  Serie A voted against the change, and has been vocal in its disapproval of the new rule.  There are ways around the rule of course – sweep foreign players into the EU fold due to lineage or residency, but it seems like a knee jerk reaction to a bad World Cup.

Share your thoughts on any of the changes in the comments section below or via Twitter @roberthayjr.

Of the many reasons Italy was said to have flopped so spectacularly in the World Cup, one was the lack of friendlies prior to the actual tournament.  Those that were played, like the Mexico loss, showed the deficiencies in the club but their rarity failed to provide an opportunity to rectify those deficiencies.  In the midst of outrage, rending of garments, and promises to change the Azzurri in time for the next World Cup, FIGC has decided to repeat its pre-World Cup mistakes from the start.

Goal.com is reporting this morning that FIGC has failed to line up an opponent for their August 11 friendly, leaving Aremnia as possibly the only European opponent available to play.  So rather than shake off the failure of the 2010 World Cup and unveil the Prandelli era with new players and an exciting match-up, Italian fans could be faced with a boring over-matched Armenian club.  Contrast this with the United States, who in August will face Brazil in the Meadowlands, one of the largest American stadiums next to its largest city.

Granted, the squad that runs out onto the pitch in August 2010 will not be the same as the one that goes to Brazil in 2014, but the country needs to begin the “healing process” with an exciting match-up.  FIGC needed to plan ahead and put up an exciting match, but probably failed to do so expecting the team to be recovering from World Cup greatness.  It isn’t, and the leadership has failed to begin adequately preparing for the future.

If you wanted an exciting beginning to the Prandelli era, here are three matches I would rather see:

1. Cameroon in Milan.  Samuel Eto’o could play in front of the Inter Milan fans and the Azzurri would play a beatable but talented African team.
2. Argentina in Naples.  Granted a number of attendees would root for Argentina, but the return of Maradona to Naples would be electric.  It would also give the Azzurri a chance to play a good squad in their home country, and a win would give instant credibility to the new manager and players.
3. South Korea in Rome.  The traditional power plays host to an up-and-coming national team in one of soccer’s greatest venues.  South Korea has proven they are building a competitive national team, and the match with Italy would be a good way to measure up the new Italian squad with a successful World Cup team.  This match-up could give the Italian faithful flashbacks to the 1992 loss to South Kora, though, so it would behoove the Azzurri to win.

Despite Italy’s lackluster performance in their first two group stage matches, the Azzurri have the chance to advance into the next round of the World Cup with a win or a tie plus help.  Some excellent analyses of the Italian team’s weaknesses have been published over the last few days, and the negatives about this Italian team have seemingly come true (too old, not enough play makers, etc.).  The squad faces the forked road that some European powers have already faced, with one path leading to redemption (England) and another leading to disgrace and finger-pointing (France).

So, how can Italy win its first international match in 2010?  Here are three ways Marcello Lippi can tip the outcome:

1. Start Leonardo Bonucci over Cannavaro: Yes, Cannavaro is the captain, has won a World Cup, and was one of the world’s best defenders at one time.  But in a win-or-go-home match, you need to put in the player that gives you the best chance to win.  Cannavaro is (directly or indirectly) responsible for both goals scored against Italy this World Cup.  His defending on New Zealand’s only goal was terrible, as he had a good opportunity to deny the ball but was a step too slow.   Bonucci lacks Cannavaro’s World Cup experience but does have one thing most of the squad lacks – a goal in international competition.  He scored off a rebound in the Mexico friendly, and has showed the type of finishing off set pieces that has been a weakness of this team so far.  His presence enhances the defending and scoring in set pieces, which the team needs more than experience.
2. Start Antonio Di Natale instead of Alberto Gilardino:  Di Natale’s presence in the New Zealand match made an immediate difference.  While he did not score, he had some quality shots and had the best chances to score in the second half.  Starting him would allow him to get into a groove throughout the match instead of trying to be an immediate threat off the bench, which has not worked to this point.  And while I suggest Gilardino sit, any of the Azzurri strikers could be inserted here, as the offense has been stagnant.
3. Start Andrea Pirlo and sub Montolivo for him at halftime:  Marcello Lippi has said Pirlo will be available off the bench due to injury, but if he is healthy enough to come off the bench Lippi should consider starting him.  He is the best spark plug for the offense, and if the Italians score quickly and take a lead into halftime, Montolivo can finish the match in his place.  Could this backfire and potentially aggravate Pirlo’s injury, taking him out of the entire World Cup?  Yes, but you need a positive result in this match before you can worry about future ones.

What do you think are the keys to the match?  Share below or on Twitter at @roberthayjr.

By now you have undoubtedly heard about the injury to Gigi Buffon and his questionable status for the remainder of the World Cup.  Reading between the lines of the statements coming out of the Italian camp it looks like possibly the best keeper in the world could actually miss the entire World Cup.  And in this World Cup, everyone recognizes the importance of a quality, screw-up free keeper.  The new Azzurri keeper will likely be Federico Marchetti, who has two international caps and until two seasons ago had never played for a Serie A club.  All of this plus the fact that the Italian squad seemingly relies on its ironclad defense to win matches, and it looks really bad for the Italians.

But as an Azzurri fan I can see some positives in this situation.  No Italian fan will ever seriously admit that this is an ideal or preferred situation for the team, but there are a few silver linings in this cloud.

1. Marchetti has talent and could be ready for World Cup action: Federico Marchetti has minimal name recognition, but his resume is quite impressive.  In the 2007-2008 Serie B season he was the starting keeper on an Albinoleffe club that surprisingly was almost promoted to Serie A.  He was sent on loan to Cagliari the next season and has firmly established himself as one of the best Italian keepers in Serie A.  Buffon even endorsed him as one of the country’s best.

While he did not have to work too much in the second half against Paraguay, Marchetti has the talent to compete in the World Cup.  And if he recognizes his opportunity to establish a reputation for himself, he has the talent to show that he is a top-flight keeper.  This World Cup could also serve as a try-out for him for the 2014 tournament in Brazil.

2. The injury forces Italy to play offense: Buffon’s injury ends any question about whether Italy can ride its defense to another title.  Despite Marchetti’s talent, you cannot shoulder the entire burden of a World Cup run on him like you could a Buffon.  Therefore, Marcello Lippi has to acknowledge that his club must step up its offense, and it has the talent to do so.

Antonio Di Natale came off the bench in Italy’s draw against Paraguay, and Lippi must now give serious thought to starting the Napoli striker.  Di Natale led Serie A in goals this past season, and if he cannot provide the needed offense, Sampdoria’s surprising offensive star Giampaolo Pazzini is available to start.  But regardless of how Lippi chooses to jumpstart his scoring, he has to realize that Italy needs to be more aggressive offensively.  They have the talent to do so, and a more aggressive approach will help them advance in this tournament.

3. The pressure is off the team: As defending World Cup champions and one of, if not the premier, soccer nations in the world, the pressure to win the World Cup will always be on the Azzurri.  But with the injuries to Buffon and Pirlo, plus what could arguably be a transition from the 2006 squad to younger stars (some of whom, unfortunately, are not on this squad), the Italians are actually not favored to win the World Cup.  Some people even predicted before the Buffon injury that Italy would not advance from Group F.  The club should use this situation to play looser and not be chained with expectations.  If they make a run at the championship, it will be a remarkable story of them overcoming age and injury.  If they don’t, they can pick an excuse as to why not.

4. Italy can win this group, and maybe the Cup, with a backup keeper: Let’s be honest, the Azzurri should win this group even with their backup keeper.  New Zealand is scrappy, but their squad should not be remotely ready to handle the defending champions.  Slovakia is talented, but this is their first World Cup and showed they are prone to rookie mistakes (like allowing an opponent to tie within minutes of the final whistle).  Italy playing its best game can grab the top spot and move out of the group.  From there, anything can happen in a one-and-done environment.  Depending on who advances from the group stages, Italy could be facing Japan in the second round and be a few wins away from the championship.

5.  Buffon could be back: What if Buffon and the Italian medical team work miracles and Buffon is ready for the later stages of the World Cup?  Instead of needing to win at least five matches with a backup keeper, maybe they only need to get out of Group F and win in the second round.  This is a very doable situation for the club.

Do I think Italy is better without Buffon?  Certainly not.  But can they use the situation to their advantage and overcome the injury?  Absolutely.

The biggest “win” in New Zealand soccer history was also a major victory for the Italian national team. 

Slovakia was the better club for ninety minutes today, taking a 1-0 lead over New Zealand early in the second half on a goal by Robert Vittek.  The All Whites, who looked like a club playing in their first World Cup in decades, hung tough but could not find an equalizer until Shane Smeltz sent in a cross which Winston Reid headed past Jan Mucha in the third minute of stoppage time.  The draw was New Zealand’s first World Cup point ever and only their second point in a FIFA competition.

But more importantly for Azzurri fans, Group F is back to square one.  All four clubs have a point and are squared on goal difference and points scored.  While this raises the importance of every subsequent match – since any unseen tie or victory could be even more definitive – it also should be a relief for Italian fans everywhere.

Italy’s draw with Paraguay can generously be described as a poor performance.  You can read an excellent summary of the match here, but in short Lippi’s squad played as many detractors said they would play – slowly and uncreatively.  As Serie A fans know, the Azzurri have a wealth of talent and are a squad that can play with the best in the world.  Maybe Italy has joined clubs like England, the Netherlands, and Portugal as quality clubs that are off to slow starts.

But the draw today allows Italy to continue to control its own destiny over the next two matches.  If Slovakia would have won today, it would have been atop Group F and Italy may have depended on other results to see if it would advance.  Now Italy’s path to the next round looks a bit easier.  New Zealand looked pretty good against Slovakia but this squad’s goal was to earn a point before going home and building off of that for future tournaments.  An angry Italian team should gain a full three points from the All Whites, which would allow them to control their own destiny heading into the final match against Slovakia. 

And after yesterday’s performance, this may be the best thing they can ask for.

Which team had the best performance in the first Group F matches?

(polls)

An ESPN interview with some of the Italian national team players shows that not even the squad seems to know who will be on the pitch on Sunday when they kick off versus Paraguay.  Marcello Lippi has been tight-lipped about who will start and what formation the Azzurri will play, even noting that the formation could be fluid throughout the World Cup.  A look at the starters in recent friendlies is a useless guide, as the last two have seen vastly different lineups.

However, if Marcello Lippi asked me who my starting 11 would be on June 14 (and I am checking my voicemail just in case), here would be my suggestion:

Formation:4-3-3.  The strength of this squad is their defending, and this formation allows the Azzurri to play with their best four defenders.  Since they are without Pirlo for the first two matches at least, this formation allows for players to move up for more offensive firepower if needed, such as moving Maggio up to the midfield.

Keeper:Gianluigi Buffon.  I don’t think I need to explain why.

Backline: Leonardo Bonucci, Fabio Cannavaro, Giorgio Chiellini, Christian Maggio.  Cannavaro and Chiellini are no-brainers and should be on the pitch from the opening kick.  Maggio is arguably better placed as a winger but starting him on the backline allows him to move around in the 4-3-3 as needed, either into the midfield or remaining back.  Bonucci may be the most controversial inclusion, but the young defender has shown a knack for scoring off set pieces and could be a valuable option in the box on offense if the club needs to score.  Plus, by starting the Bari defender, Lippi can play his more experienced players later in the match if experience is called for.  Lippi can call on Zambrotta for experience but if he needs fresh legs, Bochetti would be available.

Midfield:Daniele De Rossi, Riccardo Montolivo, Gennaro Gattuso.  Midfield is arguably the weakest part of the club right now with injuries to Pirlo and Camoranesi, so a three-player midfield with the option of moving up a defender or dropping a forward is ideal.  DeRossi and Gattuso are veterans who have won a World Cup and can provide experience in managing a World Cup match from the middle.  Pirlo’s injury means the Azzurri lack a playmaker whose passing skills can jump start an attack, so Fiorentina captain Montolivo and his passing skills are needed in the middle.

Forwards: Fabio Quagliarella, Alberto Gilardino, Vincenzo Iaquinta.  My gut has me leaning toward these three being the starters up front, although it may be hard to keep Di Natale and Pazzini on the bench to start.  Di Natale was the leading scorer in Serie A, so if Italy fails to threaten the goal in their first match you may see DiNatale starting the second.  But this lineup allows for an experienced front to begin a match and, if Italy needs a quick strike or more offense, has some firepower coming off the bench. 

We are about 48 hours away from the Azzurri taking the pitch – who’s your starting 11?

Manager – Vladimir Weiss Sr.

FIFA Ranking – 34

Schedule – New Zealand (6/15), Paraguay (6/20), Italy (6/24)

Qualification – First place, UEFA Group 3

Big name player– Marek Hamsik (Napoli)

Last time they qualified for WC – Never

A quick geography lesson for those who are unfamiliar with the European landscape – Slovakia is half of Czechoslovakia, which split into different countries in 1993. This is the first time that the Slovaks have made the World Cup, but their countrymen were key contributors to the Czechoslovakian clubs that won the 1976 European championship and made the quarterfinals of the 1990 World Cup. Their neighbors and former countrymen also have international history: the Czechs made the 2006 tournament only to fail to advance from the group stage, despite a FIFA ranking as high as #4.

The club had a tough qualification in UEFA Group 3 but showed resilience to make the World Cup. Their most impressive victory was undoubtedly their 2-1 win over the Czech Republic in Prague, the first time they had ever beaten their former countrymen in their former capital. They qualified after winning a match 1-0 over Poland where they scored the go-ahead goal three minutes into the match and held on for the victory. They did however lose to fellow World Cup qualifiers Slovenia in the group stage.

Their manager is a famous name in Slovakian football history. Vladimir Weiss’s father was a member of the Czechoslovakian national squad and Weiss himself was a member of the 1990 team. He was named manager in 2008 and has achieved fame in the country by leading them to their first World Cup.

A key player to the Slovakian attack is also Vladimir Weiss – the manager’s son. The 22 year old Manchester City player did not receive a lot of playing time in the EPL due to City’s depth chart, but is highly regarded by Roberto Mancini. He will likely be the right winger in the team’s 4-4-2 formation pairing with a familiar name to Serie A fans: Marek Hamsik was Napoli’s leading goal scorer this season, notching 12 goals in 37 appearances. He has experience playing against the members of the Italian team, and that experience could be key in their June 24 match. The rest of the midfield could be manned by Mainz 05’s Miroslav Karhan, who has 96 international appearances, and Miroslav Stoche.

Up front are two players who can certainly score goals. One striker is 28 year old Robert Vittek, who is playing professionally in Turkey but failed to notch a goal in qualifying. Only four years ago, he starred at Nuremberg in Bundesliga and became the first Bundesliga player to score a combined six goals in back to back matches. The other striker is likely Stanislav Sestak, who plays for Bochum in Germany and notched six goals in the last ten international matches.

The backline has most likely the most famous Slovakian football player in the world, Liverpool’s Martin Skrtel. His height can help with set pieces and any injury to the superstar could doom Slovakia’s chances. On the line with him are three players from Bundesliga, but the most interesting member of the defense could be the keeper Jan Mucha. Mucha recently completed a transfer from the Polish league to Everton, where he is expected to be competition in goal for the U.S.’s Tim Howard next season in the EPL. English soccer fans may want to keep an eye on him to see if he could compete with Howard.

The Slovakian club is very experienced at the club level and some of their key players have international experience as well. Slovakia is the type of team that has enough talent and experience to give Italy trouble in the group stage IF they stay healthy. Injuries to key “backbone” players like Skrtel or Hamsik would doom their chances. But a healthy Slovakian squad could give the Azzurri problems and knock them from their presumed perch in Group F.

Manager – Ricki Herbert

FIFA Ranking – 78

Schedule – Slovakia (6/15), Italy (6/20), Paraguay (6/24)

Qualification – First place, Oceania

Big name player– Ryan Nelsen (Blackburn Rovers)

Last time they qualified for WC – 1982

The colorfully named “All Whites” could conceivably be the worst team to qualify for the 2010 World Cup.  Consider the following:

• Two members of their squad are not signed by a professional club
• Their best international result ever was a 0-0 draw against Iraq in the 2009 Confederations Cup, the first ever point in a FIFA tournament.
• They lost to Fiji in World Cup qualifying

If you are looking for an underdog club to root for, this is the club to watch.  New Zealand made the World Cup after fairly easily placing first in the Oceania Qualification group but to qualify they still had to win 1-0 in aggregate over Asia’s fifth place squad Bahrain.  Oceania does not include Australia, but does include New Caledonia, Fiji, and Vanuatu, which are not exactly soccer powerhouses.  In New Zealand itself, soccer comes in behind rugby and cricket in popularity, and their top club (Wellington Phoenix) plays in the Australian A-league.

New Zealand’s record in international tournaments is quite discouraging.  Their first and only trip to the Word Cup before this year was in 1982, where they failed to advance beyond the group stage and scored only two goals in three defeats.  They have not faired much better in the Confederations Cup, losing eight matches with the one draw against Iraq and having a -22 goal difference.

The man tasked with guiding the All Whites in South Africa is Ricki Herbert, a star defender from the 1982 World Cup squad.  He is the current manager of the Wellington Phoenix and also managed the New Zealand U-23 squad in the Olympics.  In the qualification matches his club played in a 4-4-2 formation but against more experienced competition they may fall back into a 5-3-2 to play more conservatively and prevent blowouts. 

The biggest name player on the club is Ryan Nelsen, a defender for the Blackburn Rovers of the English Premier League.  Prior to joining the Rovers, Nelsen played college ball at Stanford for fellow Kiwi Bobby Clark and was drafted by DC United.  The former Rover captain has led their stingy defense and looks to do the same for the All Whites.  He will partner with young Winston Reid, a dual New Zealand-Danish citizen who is an up-and-coming player in Danish football.

The All White attack will be lead by Chris Kellen, a Celtic backup striker, and Shane Smeltz, who notched eight goals during the Oceania Qualification stage and is arguably the best offensive footballer in New Zealand.  The squad is very tall, with an average player height of just over six feet, so their aerial ability is without question.  And they can score at times – they notched three goals against Italy in a friendly last year and defeated Serbia in another friendly this year.

Qualifying for the 2010 World Cup is a major victory for New Zealand this year, so any points in the group stage is icing on the cake for this club.  As such, the other three squads should use the Kiwis to paid their point total and goal difference.  But a team who overlooks the All Whites and fails to take them seriously could become the new high point of New Zealand soccer history.

Update – ESPN.com via Gazzetta dello Sport is reporting that Pirlo plans to be fit by the final group stage match against Slovakia.

Add Andrea Pirlo to the growing list of World Cup injuries.

The Italian midfielder and AC Milan star could miss an undefined number of matches after suffering a second degree calf injury in the Azzurri’s 2-1 loss to Mexico in a pre-World Cup friendly.  As they often are, the initial reports were incorrect, claiming that he could miss the entire World Cup.  The most recent reports have Pirlo missing only the friendly against Switzerland on Saturday and at least the first two matches of the group stage, as his injury usually takes 15-20 days to recover.  The Azzurri can replace him on the roster before June 14 if needed.

Pirlo’s injury comes during a busy 48 hours that saw the Ivory Coast (Drogba) and England (Ferdinand)lose stars for the entire World Cup due to injury, while the U.S. (Altidore) could have a key player out for an undefined period of time.

Andrea Pirlo’s international resume is beyond impressive.  He was named Man of the Match three times in the 2006 World Cup and was also named the third-best player in the tournament.  His corner kick led to the Italian equalizer in the final against France in 2006, and he is known for his accurate free kicks.

A long term absence for “l’architetto” could force Marcello Lippi to change his tactics for the World Cup.  During the Mexico match, he switched between a 4-2-3-1 and the 4-4-2, and the players seemed to prefer the 4-4-2.  If he stuck with a 4-4-2, possible replacements could include Sampdoria’s Angelo Palombo or Fiorentina’s Riccardo Montolivo.  However, his creativity and ability to create scoring chances may be the biggest loss if he is out beyond the group stage.

The World Cup is one week away, and if you are a soccer fan, it is hard not to be anxious for the tournament to begin.  In anticipation of the first Group F match on June 14 (Italy v. Paraguay) I will post of preview of the other three teams in Group F, to help Azzurri fans see the competition in the group stage.  Also, I would encourage everyone to visit EPL Talk and cast their votes on which squads will advance from the group stage.

Paraguay

Manager – Gerardo Martino

FIFA Ranking – 31

Schedule – Italy (6/14), Slovakia (6/20), New Zealand (6/24)

Qualification – Second place, CONMEBOL

Big name player– Roque Santa Cruz (Manchester City)

Last time did not qualify for WC – 1994

For many experts, Paraguay is considered the second team most likely to advance from this group.  The nation is playing in its fourth consecutive World Cup but has never advanced past the second round.  To advance even further, it needs to rely on its defense while hoping its thin front line and inexperienced manager can come through when needed.

Paraguay finished a convincing second in the tough CONMEBOL, only one point behind first place Brazil.  In qualifying they won matches versus Brazil (2-0), Argentina (1-0), at Chile, and at Columbia, with a draw at Argentina.  But the big story in the lead up to the World Cup was the shooting of striker Salvador Cabenas in March, prompting his temporary retirement from soccer and depriving la Albirroja of a very talented striker.

Cabenas’s absence means the club will further need to rely on Roque Santa Cruz, the Premier League veteran who notched three goals in 18 EPL matches this season.  He is one of four players on the squad who played in England this year, and Serie A fans will recognize midfielder Edgar Barreto, who starred for Atalanta this season.  But other than those, most of the players have made their careers in South American leagues.  The stars of the 1998 and 2002 squads that have retired are being replaced by players that are veterans of the Paraguay squads that won the Milk Cup in 2002, 2003, and 2006.

One place where there is glaring inexperience is on the bench.  Manager Gerardo Martino was appointed in 2007, and this will be his first World Cup as a manager or player.  He was successful at the club level in Paraguay, but the difference between the national league and the world stage may place Paraguay at a slight disadvantage, especially against experienced squads like Italy.  He favors a 4-4-2 formation with Santa Cruz and Nelson Haedo Valdez (Borussia Dortmund) up front. 

Defense is the key for la Albirroja, as the club tends to play tight in the back and wait for opportunities to counter.  The keeper is Justo Villar, who made 15 appearances in La Liga for Real Vallalodid but has only seven minutes experience in the World Cup.  He has, however, appeared in multiple Copa America tournaments.  Cristian Riveros in the middle is the key to the counter – the left winger will lead the breaks and push the ball to the forwards to create scoring chances. 

But Paraguay is vulnerable to experienced teams that maintain possession.  And this is why they are an excellent first match for the Azzurri, an experienced and disciplined club.  Italy certainly has more talent, and if they dominate possession and take advantage of their scoring chances, the Paraguay match offers them an opportunity to build positive momentum into the next round.  But sloppy and undisciplined play and they could have problems with Paraguay, casting doubt on their repeat chances.

Paraguay has the talent to advance and cause problems for the Italians, as well as advance into the round of 16.  But anything more than that may be too much to ask.  But what do you think?

For those unfamiliar with the story, Rossi was born in New Jersey to Italian immigrant parents.  He grew up in a bilingual household and as a teenager moved with his father to train in Italy. He trained with Parma in their youth academy, being nicknamed “America”.  He participated in the various Italian youth national teams, and in 2005, as ESPN relates in their story about Rossi, U.S. national coach Bruce Arena offered him a spot on the team for a friendly in Scotland.  Rossi turned him down in 2005 and his successor Bob Bradley down again in 2007, instead concentrating on making the Italian national squad.  In 2009, he fulfilled his lifelong dream and made the Azzurri roster.

His first international goal was in a victory over Northern Ireland in June 2009.  His next two cemented the hatred of many American fans:

Since the earliest the U.S. and Italy can meet in the World Cup is in the semi-finals, it is unlikely that Rossi will have the opportunity to recreate his magic against the country of his birth.  Still, there is a visceral hatred of the young player in the U.S.  A search of “Giuseppe Rossi traitor” (the fourth choice that comes up when you type his name in Google) yields over 3,000 results including a “Giuseppe Rossi is a Traitor” Facebook page.  If he continues to improve and become the player many think he will become, U.S. fans will be haunted with “what ifs” for many years. 

But I would argue that U.S. fans should root for Rossi, not despise him.  His family truly represents the American dream – immigrants who make a life for themselves in the U.S. and whose success allows their child to chase his own dream.  Rossi first learned soccer in the American soccer system – his father coached the sport at Clifton High School, a prep powerhouse. But he became a complete player in Italy’s youth system, and I think that because Italy formed him as a player, it makes sense for him to want to play for Italy. 

Even though he is Italian on the pitch, off the pitch he professes an admiration for the country of his birth.  As he told ESPN, “the TV I watch, the websites I visit, the music I like – it’s all from America.”  He embraces the American lifestyle and is unashamed of his American background.

Americans fans should direct their anger over Rossi elsewhere – at the U.S. Soccer Federation.  Rossi notes that he grew up watching Italian soccer and seeing the Italian national team play Ireland in the World Cup at Giants Stadium was a defining moment for him.  He fell in love with the Azzurri that day, a dream that has led him to making the squad in 2009.  Even the prospect of playing extensively for the U.S. team could not derail him from his dream of wearing the Italian blue.  The U.S. Soccer Federation must make it a goal (no pun intended) that such talent begin to fall in love with the red, white, and blue.

In this aggravating time between the end of the Serie A season and the beginning of the World Cup, we can bide our time by looking back at the past Serie A season.  As expected by many, Inter Milan won the title.  In my series of posts reviewing the season, however, I want to begin by looking at those teams that surprised the experts.  These are the clubs that exceeded expectations the most.  At the end of the post, vote for which club you think was the most surprising club of the past season and post any comments or additions.  Also feel free to share your thoughts via Twitter @roberthayjr.  Clubs listed in alphabetical order –

Bari – The recently promoted club began the campaign by losing the manager (Antonio Conte) that lead them to win Serie B in 2008-2009.  The club was also put up for sale and seemingly sold to U.S. businessman Tim Burton in September, only to have the team pull back and the sale fall through.

Despite this, Bari flirted with a European bid for most of the season, sitting in the top 8 until injuries and a late swoon landed the club a respectable tenth.  Their defensive prowess also made stars of Andrea Ranocchia and Leonardo Bonucci plus introduced the league to Jean-Francois Gillet, one of the world’s most underrated keepers.  The club goes into next season again unsettled, but can build off a successful return to Serie A.

Season highpoint– Bari 3, Juventus 1 (12/12/09).  The match put Bari one point within a Champions League spot and gave them their first win over Juve since 1990.

Palermo – Success is nothing new at Palermo, and this season’s fifth place finish should be considered another success.  Their new coach at the beginning of the season, Walter Zenga, was an inspired hire away from rival Catania.  However, Zenga struggled to lead the club and was fired after thirteen Serie A matches despite a three year contract.  The new manger, Delio Rossi, was much more successful, leading the club at one point to seven straight victories. The club was also undefeated at home, with a 13-6-0 record.

The star of the team was Fabrizio Miccoli, who notched 19 goals for the team lead.  He became Palermo’s all-time leading goal scorer against Sampdoria on May 9th but hurt his knee in the match.  The squad also had two players make the provisional Italian national team: keeper Salvatore Sirigu and defender Mattia Cassani.

Season highpoint – Palermo 2, AC Milan 0 (12/13/09).  Delio Rossi earned his first high-profile victory with Palermo’s away win.  It was only second win of the campaign, and the first of many more.

Parma – Two seasons ago, Parma went through three managers and still fell into Serie B.  After promotion last season, the club shot up the Serie A rankings, sitting in fourth place in December.  Although it struggled to win consistently after, Parma finished eighth in the standings, higher than Bari who finished ahead of them in Serie B last season.

One of the up and coming players on the club is Davide Lanzafame, a former Juventus striker who spent some time on the Italian U-21 squad.  He notched seven goals and six assists, both good for second on the team.

Season highpoint – Parma 2, Bologna 1 (12/13/09).  Just like Palermo, Parma climbed the highest they would reach in the table (fourth place) with a win on December 13.  Nicola Amoruso scored the game-winner in the 86th minute after missing a penalty shot earlier in the match.

Sampdoria – Sampdoria earned a spot in next year’s Champions League qualifier by means of a fourth place finish in Serie A.  And it was a close call – they won their final match of the year 1-0 to secure the final spot.  That ending is probably fitting for this club.

Early in the season Sampdoria looked to threaten for not just qualifying but for top spot in Serie A, holding off Inter in the fall for first.  They then fell down the standings and at one point went seven matches without a win before finishing the season by gaining points in all eight of their final matches. They achieved this despite the distractions of the talented Antonio Cassano, who at one pointed looked to be traded/released/dispatched via loan due to his fights with management.  But his suspensions helped Sampdoria fellow striker Giampaolo Pazzini shine and earn his way onto the Italian National team provisional squad.  His manager Gigi Del Neri also gained widespread fame, enough for Juventus to hire him last week.

Season highpoint – Sampdoria 1, Napoli 0 (04/16/10).  Sampdoria finishes fourth and secures an unbeaten home record.  The only goal, appropriately enough, is scored by Giampaolo Pazzini.

Which team had the most surprising finish in 2009-10?

(polls)

Liverpool’s on-field results and the contentious ownership situation at Anfield suggests the possibility that Benitez leaves the EPL club after this season.  This begs the question of whether Juventus should hire him to manager their club if he’s available.  He fits the high-profile requirement, but would his hiring do more harm than good for Juve?

Before coming to the English Premiere League, Bentiez saw great success as manager of Valencia, guiding the club to its first La Liga title in thiry-one years in 2002 and a UEFA Cup trophy in 2004 (as well as a second La Liga title).  But his time in the Spanish league was cut short due to his disagreement with Valencia’s management over player signings, leading to his excellent “I asked for a table and they bought me a lampshade” quote.

His first two years at Liverpool started off with a bang, winning a Champions League trophy and FA Cup.  But from 2007 until today his tenure has been rather lackluster.  His club finished second in the Prem last season, but this season has been nothing short of a disaster.  Liverpool currently sits in seventh, two points off a European tournament spot.

Benitez is hard on players, and maybe his no-prisoners attitude would be good for a club that loves to send players to the national squad but not win trophies.  If nothing else, the Inter-Juve matches would be wonderful for the press: Benitez and Jose Mourinho have a history from their English soccer days.  But his success at the international level is something that Juve fans seek, especially watching Inter advance to the Champions League final.

But would he torpedo the club?  The fall of Liverpool from second to seventh this season has stirred up his critics.  His decision to “replace” Xabi Alonso with Alberto Aquilani has been a disaster.  Critics contend that he has failed to adequately prepare for injuries to aging players such as Steven Gerrard and Fernando Torres.  This criticism is particularly relevant since Juventus has a number of older starters.  Plus, he has a tendency every few years to blame management for not allowing him to sign players he likes and threaten to leave.

But what do you think?

Should Juventus Hire Rafa Benitez?

(polls)

Maicon knocks in the second goal

What more could you ask for from the home club?

Inter Milan convincingly beat what many have called the world’s greatest soccer team yesterday with a 3-1 victory over Barcelona.  The match was controversial from the start, as Barcelona endured a 10 hour bus ride to Milan because the European airspace was still mostly closed.

Despite what had to have been an uncomfortable ride, Barcelona struck first.  The simply named Pedro took a pass from Maxwelland buried it in the back of the net for an early lead in the 19th minute.  The crowd, knowing what Barca had done at the Emirates in the previous round, had to have been rather uncomfortable, especially since for the rest of the first half Lionel Messi was quiet but threatening.  Their discomfort was increased when Inter missed a few good chances from Diego Milito to even the score.

That equalizer came in the 30th minute when Milito decided that if he couldn’t put the ball past Victor Valdes, Wesley Sneijder on the wing could and did.  Inter went ahead for good in the 48th minute when Milito again garnered an assist, this time to Maicon from close range.  The man of the match finally got his goal in the 61st minute, closing out the scoring and giving Inter a comfortable cushion in aggregate goals.

Barcelona’s defense was inadequate yesterday and too often left attackers unmarked.  Barcelona needs at least two goals to advance and although they have to be favored at home, Inter Milan has put themselves in an excellent position to advance.  They probably could not have expected a better result, and as such may be the slight favorite to advance to the Champions League finals.

On the pitch, an official has the authority to add time to a match to make up for injury or ensure that both clubs actually play 45 minutes in the half.  In the Serie A standings, there is no added time, and for the three clubs at the bottom the ticking clock is a doomsday one.

Relegation is never a fun process, but it will be particularly painful this year.  As Serie A forms its own league, e.g. the English Premier League, the amount of revenue available to top-flight clubs will be much more than the current pot; those sitting just below the top level will not only lose prestige but stand to lose a good chunk of change as well.

With five matches remaining, supporters of the bottom 3 are fervently hoping for one last push from their clubs.  Let’s take a look at each and see if they can survive in Serie A:

Atalanta

18th, 31 points, -12 goal differential

In their fourth season in Serie A, Atalanta looks to have the best chance of escaping the relegation zone.  They are four points behind Bologna, but actually have a narrow edge in goal differential. 

The good news for the club is that three of their remaining five matches are at home, where they are 6-4-6 and have a +4 goal differential.  And one of those four matches is May 2 versus 17th place Bologna, who has a terrible away record.  The do face, however, two of the top for clubs (@ Inter, v. Palermo) as well as Fiorentina and Napoli, who have a shot at a Champions League spot.  If they can secure some points in their next two matches, they have a chance to move into 17th and possibly survive.

Siena

19th, 29 points, -22 goal differential

Siena was the only one of the bottom three to win this weekend, surprising a slumping Bari club.  While the victory moved them up in the standings, it may have been a pyrrhic victory.  They are six back of safety currently, and only two of their remaining five matches are at home.

In order to make a serious run at 17th (and this may be the best they could hope for), they need six points from their next two matches: @ Catania and @ Udinese.  They beat both clubs at home earlier in the year, so it is not inconceivable.  But it is critical, as their next three opponents are Palermo, @ Fiorentina, and closing the season with Inter Milan.

Livorno

20th, 26 points, -28 goal differential

The club that has scored the fewest goals in Serie A is in trouble.  They sit nine points off seventeenth and lost a must-win match this weekend against Udinese.  Their carousel of managers has not led to them striking gold, and it does not look good for the Amaranto. 

Livorno, however, may have the easiest schedule of the bottom three.  Only two opponents are in the top ten (@Sampdoria, @ Parma) and they face Catania and Lazio at home.  The fact that they have not won since January 10, however, may be the telling statistic.

Predictions – Enjoy Livorno and Siena for the remaining five matches – barring a miracle they will move down a level.  Atalanta, however, seems to have a chance to escape and replace themselves with Bologna or even Lazio.  It will take some work, but don’t be surprised to see Atalanta pull out a miracle.

Inter did what it needed to do to advance in the tournament – play conservatively and not make stupid mistakes.  Wesley Sniejder’s goal in the sixth minute had Moscow under the gun very early, putting them down 2-0 on aggregate and 1-0 down on away goals.  Their quest to score two or more goals was further hindered by a second yellow card to Chidi Odiah for a stupid foul early in the second half.  Inter tightened their defense for a few fruitless home team attacks, and basically ran out the clock by dominating possession at the end of the match. 

Now the Nerazzurri will face a familiar foe.  Barcelona and Inter shared the same qualifying group in the fall last year and their two matches were quite competitive.  The clubs had a scoreless draw in the San Siro while Barcelona gained a 2-0 victory at the Camp Nou.  Inter owner Massimo Moratti has already proclaimed the desire for “revenge” for the loss, but one has to wonder if this is possible. 

Barcelona seems to be hitting its stride in the Champions League.  Their 4-1 defeat of Arsenal yesterday (or maybe more accurately, Lionel Messi’s 4-1 victory over Arsenal) was an utter domination.  After Bendtner’s early notch, Arsenal never could pull together a legitimate threat.  Legitimately, you can claim this was partly due to the decimated Arsenal backline, but Barca also dominated their 2-2 draw at Emirates.

April 20 at the San Siro cannot come soon enough.  In the interim, share your thoughts in the poll and comments section.

Who will win the Inter/Barcelona semi-final?

(polls)

Rather than a traditional post rehashing strengths and weaknesses, here are the quick seven keys to the match:

1. Who will step up for Pato: The loss of the young Brazilian is huge for this match.  Not only was he leading the club in goals, but he has been a key to the resurgence of Ronaldinho.  Milan has Borriello, Huntelaar, and other big names, but when that go-ahead goal is needed will they be able to be the unstoppable threat Milan may need?
2. The Milan Brazilians: Ronaldinho has been dominating the pitch as of late; even in the loss to Manchester United it could be argued that he was the best player on the pitch that day (although Wayne Rooney might argue against that).  Thiago Silva needs to have a good match to prevent scoring chances for Roma.  A major weakness this year has been the inconsistent play of Milan’s defenders.
3. Roma’s Injury Situation: Luca Toni will make his anticipated return for this match.  David Pizarro is available to play.  However, Francesco Totti will not be available.  Can Vucinic provide the scoring threat that Roma may need if Toni is still rusty?
4. Roma’s sudden defensive slip: In the Europa League last Thursday Roma gave up three goals in six minutes to Panathinaikos, leading to their elimination from the competition.  Last weekend they gave up a two goal lead and had to settle for a draw against Napoli.  Were these consecutive defensive mishaps anomalies or the sign of a bigger problem?
5. Leonardo’s game plan: He’s 0-2 versus Inter Milan.  He’s a rookie manager that has come under criticism from management.  The easiest way to ease criticism is to figure out a way to gain three critical points.  Failure to do so will only ratchet up that criticism.
6. The crowd: Stadio Olimpico is already sold out in anticipation of this match.  Roma has not lost a Serie A match at home this season and is 11-0-2 overall.  AC Milan’s away record in Serie A is an impressive 7-4-2, and how they handle the partisan crowd could carry-over to their mid-week match at Manchester United.
7. Milan facing double elimination:  One advantage for Roma is with their Europa League elimination, this match is for their season.  No points means no chance at a title.  The equation is different for Milan, however.  Will they be looking ahead to their match mid-week against Manchester United?  A loss in this match and the Champions League means no titles for this high-profile club.  Which title means more?  Will Milan be going all out, or could they want to save a bit for their United match?

It was the best and worst of times for AC Milan

Alexandre Pato was the star of the match for Milan, netting two first half goals for the club on their way to an easy 3-1 victory over Atalanta.  But the story coming out of this match was a thigh strain for Pato, who was carried off near the end of the match.  The severity is currently unknown, but it looks like he could miss the crucial away game versus Manchester United next week.  Milan is a talented club, but Pato has fourteen goals in 24 Serie A and Champions League matches this season and thus will be missed if he is out for the match.

The positive Juventus momentum grinds to a halt

This past week, Juventus beat Ajax in aggregate to move into the round of 16 in the Europa League.  They had also moved back into fourth place in Serie A and looked to be in control of their Champions League destiny.  Alas, their momentum came to a screeching halt with a 2-0 loss to Palermo, who replaces them in that coveted fourth place in the standings.  Juve had their chances, but only put one shot on goal in the contest.  This was their first loss under new manager Alberto Zaccheroni.

Roma and Napoli both end streaks

A Marek Hamsik goal in extra time sealed an impressive Napoli comeback and secured their first points in their last six matches.  That same goal also ended Roma’s winning streak at seven matches and, with Milan’s two victories in four days, dropped them into third in the standings three points behind Milan and seven behind Inter.  Mirko Vucinic continued to play well netting a goal in the 65th minute, but it was Roma’s defense that let Napoli back into the contest.  This bitter defeat ended a bad week for Roma – still without Toni and Totti, they had been eliminated from the Europa League on Thursday.

Lazio survives to play another day

In a match setting that ESPN described as “ghostly”, Lazio held on to a 1-1 draw against Fiorentina to pick up one point and remain three points away from relegation.  The Lazio faithful held a protest of the club’s ownership, resulting in an estimated crown of 10,000 quietly watching the match in the Stadio Olympico.  Lazio seized an early lead on a goal in the seventh minute, and their third-string keeper didn’t concede an equalizer until extra time in the second half.  It was at the same time a missed opportunity and favorable match for the home club.

Bari continues its free-fall

For a club that was considered a dark horse for a Euopra League spot, Bari has played miserably the past few weeks.  Last week, they barely put up a fight against visiting AC Milan.  This week, the gave up four goals to a Catania club that is fighting to stay up in Serie A.  Bari played well but failed to put any points on the board despite some good opportunities.  This is their fourth straight loss and they have failed to scored for the third time in those matches.